Episode 52: Danke Schoen
I started writing this weekly newsletter one year ago during the height of COVID. My motivation for creating ToMorrow’s View was twofold. The first goal was to be of service to others by creating and curating high-quality content that is (mostly) objective, fair-minded and informative. Walking the middle of the road is hard while still having something interesting and impactful to say. I hope that my “voice” has come close to its aim. I’ve lost a few subscribers who lean far right and far left but managed to grow readership a respectable margin without any form of promotion.
The second goal was to create a community during a once in a hundred years health crisis. Like many of you, I suffered from isolation during COVID, and this newsletter allowed me to stay connected with friends, colleagues, and strangers who enjoy the fruit of my labor. I will not mince words. Producing this newsletter each week is a lot of work, and the pay is shit, lol. There have been weeks when doing my taxes feels like a more desirable task. However, I will also confess that I get a great sense of pride in hitting the “publish” button each week and watching the “open, page view and click” stats accumulate. Creating something that people enjoy consuming is rewarding. Please know that I am grateful for your patronage and the kind words many have sent my way. Danke Schoen!
COVID
Great News
The COVID charts in the US paint a beautiful picture: the retreat of coronavirus appears permanent. While victory isn’t final, it’s growing close. After almost a year and a half of sickness, death, isolation, and untold undocumented collateral devastation such as mental illness, suicide, and ignored chronic diseases, the progress against coronavirus is cause for celebration. More than 60 percent of American adults have received at least one vaccine shot, and the share is growing by about two percentage points per week. States are increasing the incentive to get vaccinated. Ohio recorded a 28% boost with vaccinations with its “Vacci-million” lottery. Maryland is giving away $40,000 for 40 days with a grand prize of $400,000. New York rolled its “vax and scratch” (sorry, New Yorkers, that sounds like an STD) with prizes totaling $5million. The government is also partnering with dating apps so members can showcase their vaccination status. These incentive schemes seem ridiculous on the cover; however, they appear to be working. The share of COVID tests coming back positive has fallen below 3 percent for the first time since widespread testing began, and the number of hospitalized patients has fallen to the lowest point in 11 months. The US experienced the lowest 7-day average in a year, dropping below 40,000 cases or an 18% drop from last week.
Mask Mayhem
Masks continue to be a lightning rod subject across the country, and the views, mainly, fall along political party lines. Last week, the CDC issued guidance that people who are fully vaccinated against coronavirus no longer need to wear masks while indoors and are safe to gather with groups of any size outdoors. Yet, a handful of states continue to have mask mandates, and even in states that have lifted the mask mandate, many shop owners still require them. It’s left vaccinated citizens confused and with an uneasy and guilty feeling when walking “mask free” into stores or indoor facilities, despite being perfectly safe—to themselves and others.
To make matters even more confusing, the CDC released guidance today reinforcing an old message: COVID spreads less in schools where teachers and staff wear masks and that schools should require masks at least through the end of this school year. The statement arrives as states and school districts across the country have begun scaling back or simply dropping their masking requirements for staff and students alike. Parents are lining up on both sides of this issue. Team Mask points to the fact that anyone under 12 has not been vaccinated and, therefore, at risk. Plus, they point to a new study from Georgia that compares COVID infection rates across 169 k-5 schools. Some schools required teachers, staff, and (sometimes) students to wear masks; some did not. Researchers found that between Nov 16 and Dec 11, infection rates were 37% lower in schools where teachers and staff members were required to wear masks. Team Face points out that the risk of severe illness and death from coronavirus for children under 12 is low. Plus, they point out that only 12% of schools invited to share their data did so for the study. And, the adult vaccination rate end of last year was significantly lower than today, making the research misleading.
The latest and perhaps broadest effort to change schools’ masking policies comes from Texas, where Republican Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order Tuesday banning all mask mandates in the state’s public schools. After Jun 4, the order says, “no student, teacher, parent or other staff member or visitor may be required to wear a face covering.” Zeph Capo, president of the Texas American Federation of Teachers, called the move “unconscionable.” The Governor in Iowa passed a law this week banning schools and communities from requiring a mask. South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster issued a similar executive order. Expect this issue to heat up as we move into summer, and we approach the re-opening of schools in the fall.
Outside the US
Globally, the coronavirus situation is not as encouraging, but it has improved. Confirmed new cases are down 23 percent from their peak in late April. In India, caseloads have been falling rapidly for almost two weeks. Most countries remain more vulnerable than the US because of their lower vaccination rates. A tiny share of people have received a shot in Africa, and the numbers are only modestly higher in much of Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
INTERNATIONAL POLITICS
After 11 days of violence that displaced more than 52,000 people and killed more than 230 people in Gaza and 12 people in Israel, Hamas and Israel entered a ceasefire. Fresh clashes broke out at the al-Aqsa mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem this morning, testing the truce. But the ceasefire seemed to hold as nightfall approached. The Israeli military says more than 4,300 rockets were fired towards its territory by militants and that it struck more than 1,000 militant targets in Gaza. Egypt, which mediated the truce, is sending security delegations to the region to make sure the agreement holds. President Biden said the US would work with the UN to offer rapid humanitarian assistance in Gaza while also replenishing Israel’s missile defense system. The comments come as a group of progressive lawmakers, highlighted by the “Squad,” are pushing to block a pending arms sale to Israel.
There is a noteworthy shift happening in American politics as it relates to Israel. For decades, Democrats and especially Republicans have stood by Israel, almost unconditionally, insisting the country has a right to defend itself. But the latest violence in Gaza has splintered support for Israel, particularly among Democrats. Many on the left are accusing Israel of human rights violations due to mounting civilian casualties in Gaza and suggesting the US is complicit in arming Israel with weapons. It appears three factors are responsible for this political shift, creating the possibility of new power dynamic in the Middle East:
The rise of progressives in number and influence inside the Democratic Party
The growing power of racial justice movements in the US
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s embrace of the American right-wing in recent years
US POLITICS
CNN anchor Chris Cuomo advised his brother New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and senior members of the governor’s staff on responding to sexual harassment allegations made earlier this year by women who had worked with the governor. Some may argue it’s unrealistic that siblings wouldn’t talk about important matters with high stakes. However, it’s one thing to offer support to a family member and another to join a series of conference calls with the governor, his top aides, lawyers, and the communication team to develop a media response strategy while operating as a national journalist. Allegedly, the cable news anchor encouraged his brother to take a defiant position and not resign from the governor’s office. According to two people, he even used the phrase “cancel culture” as a reason to hold firm in the face of the allegations. In a statement, CNN acknowledged that Chris Cuomo took part in the strategy session, saying his involvement was a mistake. The network said Cuomo would not be disciplined for his actions. Nicholas Lemann, a professor at Columbia Journalism School and a New Yorker staff writer, said, “if you are actively advising a politician in trouble while being an on-air host on a news network, that’s not okay.” Regardless of your position on this topic, it’s undeniable that the Cuomo brothers, who are 13 years apart in age, have benefited from their respective high perches in politics and the media.
ECONOMY
The US has proposed a minimum global tax rate of 15%. The Treasury Department argues that such a move would prevent corporations from moving the headquarters to other countries in a bid to avoid paying taxes. The Treasury Department said a global corporate tax would ensure “innovation, growth, and prosperity” while allowing governments to raise funds for “the middle class and working people.” In 1980, corporate tax rates around the world averaged 40%. Since then, countries have recognized the impact that high corporate tax rates have on business investment decisions so that in 2020, the average is now 23.85%. Europe has the lowest regional average rate, at 19.9%. Conversely, Africa has the highest regional average statutory rate, at 28.5%. President Trump’s administration slashed the US corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, and the Biden administration has proposed raising the rate to 28%.
Bitcoin
Elon Musk, Tesla’s boss, tweeted that the electric-car maker would not, after all, accept payments in bitcoin and hinted that the firm might sell some of its crypto stashes. Then on May 18, China warned financial firms against servicing cryptocurrencies. The price of bitcoin tumbled to $30,000, half its record high in April, before stabilizing. As it cratered, bitcoin dragged most other cryptocurrencies with it. Several big crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, experienced lengthy outages. Investors unable to liquidate positions felt trapped; those willing to “buy the dip” felt cheated. The latest swing might raise doubts about whether crypto markets are liquid or even reliable enough to welcome institutional investors.
Still, America’s big banks have been venturing into cryptoland. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regards bitcoin and other digital currencies as commodities, enabling banks to trade derivatives linked to them. In March, Morgan Stanley became the first to offer wealthy customers access to bitcoin funds. This month Goldman Sachs revived the crypto desk it had mothballed in 2017; Citigroup said it might provide crypto services. BNY Mellon and State Street are vying to administer bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), currently under regulatory review in America. Once adamant that it would steer clear unless cryptocurrencies began to be regulated, JPMorgan Chase has hinted that it might start trading operations if the digital currency market expands. But it is the next level of services, where banks hold digital assets on their balance sheets, either as collateral or by trading in spot markets, that is currently beyond reach. After a day like May 19, when bitcoin lost nearly a third of its value in a few hours, regulators may ensure it stays that way. And a prolonged beatdown of BTC could still scare off prospective converts and trigger a regulatory crackdown.
OTHER
Scientists predict an “above-normal” hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean for the third year in a row. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there could be between 13 and 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes. Three to five of those hurricanes could reach Category 3 or higher, meaning they will pack wind speeds of more than 111mph. Hurricane season in the Atlantic typically runs from Jun 1 to Nov 30, with peak activity in September and October. Climate scientists say global climate change has made hurricane seasons longer and storms more devastating. Last year was a record-breaking year for a hurricane with 30 named storms.
Microsoft will retire its Internet Explorer web browser in June 2022. The company encouraged users to adopt its newer Microsoft Edge browser. The browser wars remind me of the digital hot dog races at baseball games where the winner is impossible to predict and the result acutely unsatisfying. As it currently stands, the top browsers in terms of market share are Google Chrome (64%), Safari (19%), and Firefox (4%), with Internet Explorer trailing the pack (1%).
I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:
How your hot showers and toilet flushes can help the climate
The math that explains the end of the pandemic
Why more young Chinese want to be civil servants
Sperm counts are falling precipitously across the rich world
Migrant children flying, riding buses into Tennessee
II. Stats that made me go WOW!
- In 2017, Shanna Swan of the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York and six other researchers estimated the average sperm count for 43,000 men in 55 countries worldwide. The data from 185 previously published studies suggest that sperm counts fell by about 25% between 1973 and 2011. But the academics performed a regression analysis that controlled for variation in the studies’ sampling technique, their potential sample bias, the age of men, and their level of abstinence before a sample was taken. They found that sperm counts had fallen by about 50% in Western countries over the period. She argues that the most likely culprit is the proliferation of harmful chemicals such as bisphenol A (BPA), a compound commonly found in household plastic goods.
- Working too many hours causes physical and mental stress that killed 745,194 people before their time in a single year around the globe due to heart disease and strokes. While the definition of “long hours” varies by country (and boss), the study considered 35–40 hours per week as a global standard for normal, and 55 or more to be too long. Working 55+ hours a week raises the risk of stroke 35% and the risk of heart disease 17% compared to working 35–40, the study found. About 72% of the premature deaths were among men, and most were ages 60 to 79 and had been working those long hours since age 45.
III. Name that Tune!
As I write this email, I am listening to “Danke Schoen” by Wayne Newton.
Okay, let’s be honest, the vocals on this song sound female. I was shocked when I learned Wayne Newton is the man behind the voice. Whoa!
Carson Wayne Newton is an American singer and actor. He was born in Norfolk, Virginia, and grew up in Newark, Ohio, the son of an auto mechanic and a homemaker. He is of Irish, German, and Native American ancestry. His mother is half Cherokee, and his father is half Powhatan. In 1958, near the end of Newton’s junior year of high school, a Las Vegas booking agent saw Newton on a local TV show and signed him. Newtown also began acting at an early age, appearing on the classic TV show Ponderosa as the baby-faced ranch hand, Andy.
The song Danke Schoen is a pop song of German origin. The phrase is equivalent to the English expression’ Thank you very much’ or’ Thank you kindly.’ Newton’s first version of the song was released in 1963 when he was 21 years old. The title would become his signature song and used in the coming-of-age movie, Ferris Bueller’s Day Off (1986).
Most people associate Newton with Las Vegas, where he was a prolific performer, earning him the moniker Midnight Idol and Mr. Las Vegas. In 1994, Newton performed his 25,000th solo show in Las Vegas. (That figure is hard to believe but not a typo.) In 1999, Newton signed a 10-year deal with Stardust hotel and casino, calling for him to perform 40 weeks out of the year. He followed up that gig with a long-term contract with the Las Vegas Hilton.
Legal and financial woes have plagued Newton. From 1980 to 1982, he was one of the owners of the Aladdin Hotel. Newton ended up having $20 million in debts related to him suing NBC for libel when the network claimed he had partnered with the Mafia to purchase the hotel and casino. He filed for bankruptcy in 1992. By 1999, Newton had rebounded and was wealthy again. In 2005, the IRS filed another lien against Newton, claiming he owed $1.8 million. Wayne appears to be good at making money but not very good at keeping it. Let’s just hope he keeps singing like a woman!
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