Episode 35: What's Going On
We have 64 days until the first day of spring. This time of year, I feel like James Caan trying to escape Kathy Bates in the movie Misery. Tick tock. Last week’s events at the Capitol didn’t help my mood. Plus, I’m experiencing PTSD from people’s misuse of the words capital vs. capitol/Capitol. Please break out Hodges’ Harbrace Handbook and use these words correctly before I suffer a mental breakdown. (Millennials, you can ignore that last reference as it’s something that existed before your cell phone, Google, and a 140 character limit on speech. Please continue to skim this newsletter for the duration of your 30-second attention span.)
I’m struggling with how to cover this week’s events and what’s going on. In the last seven days, we’ve experienced historical events in our tiny corner of the planet. The fall-out continues from the riot and violence that followed, with several high profile arrests and heated debate about how this occurred and who is responsible. The President was impeached for the second time, a first in American history. Social media took aggressive actions to mute users (including the President) who they viewed as threats. Democratic lawmakers called for curbs on media and suggestions for “media literacy,” raising First Amendment concerns by conservatives and anyone who has read George Orwell’s 1984. COVID set new “records” and appears to be growing uncontrollably. COVID death was 25% higher this week than any week since the pandemic began, and LA county records a new COVID case every six seconds. Lastly, the ink is not dry from the last $900 billion coronavirus aid package, and President-elect Biden announced a new $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid package. I had hoped to write this week about our growing national debt, but that will have to wait given everything else to cover.
Politics:
An FBI report issued the day before the Capitol attack warned that pro-Trump extremists were preparing to travel to Washington DC, commit violence, and “war.” Video and pictures show some insurgents were, indeed, prepared for battle, with pipe bombs, tear gas, pepper spray, handguns and ammunition, and zip ties. Federal prosecutors are investigating more than 170 suspects involved in the siege and planning sedition and conspiracy charges. The Justice Department has so far brought more than 80 cases against pro-Trump supporters who ignominiously attacked the Capitol in an attempt to overthrow the government. Around 21,000 National Guard members will be in DC to help secure President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration. This figure is more than double the number of guardsmen present for Obama’s first inauguration in 2009. The US has 168,766 active military deployed overseas, and next week the nation’s capital will have more US troops than in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria combined. The Joint Chiefs of staff sent a memo to all military personnel, reminding them that they took an oath to the Constitution. Freedom of speech does not give anyone the right to violence, sedition, and insurrection.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi did an interview with Leslie Stahl on the newsmagazine 60 minutes. Pelosi called Trump “deranged, unhinged, and dangerous.” She said, “President Trump has done something so serious that he should be prosecuted.” Stahl questioned Pelosi about her reputation of being unwilling to compromise and her part in the last coronavirus aid package’s delay. Pelosi aggressively snapped at Stahl and said she played no role in the hold and put all of the blame on Republicans.
Democratic leaders in the House urged Mike Pence and the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment and claim President Trump unfit for office. However, Mike Pence wrote a letter to Nancy Pelosi saying he won’t invoke the 25th Amendment, saying he did not believe “such a course of action is in the best interest of our Nation or consistent with our Constitution.” Consequently, the House introduced the following impeachment article and voted in favor, impeaching the President for the second time. The impeachment vote included 10 GOP members, including Liz Chaney, the third-highest ranking Republican in the House, who issued a blistering statement condemning Trump. Here is a breakdown of the steps for impeachment.
Speaker Pelosi now has to decide when she will send the article of impeachment to the Senate. Reports indicate she will take action next week, but she is under no pressure and could hold for a later date (or never submit). Senior Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he would not call an emergency session and that the earliest the Senate could begin discussion would be January 19th. For a Trump conviction, 17 GOP members will need to vote with the 50 Democrats. There are currently no GOP members on record who said they would convict Trump; however, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska have made damning statements about Trump in the media. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is the crucial vote (based on his influence over the Upper Chamber). Insiders report that McConnell is “disgusted” with President Trump for his part in last week’s events, and he “hates” him and does not plan to talk to him again. Nevertheless, it’s unclear if McConnell will cast a vote to convict the President.
Almost 60% of Americans said they blame President Trump for the violent insurrection on January 6th at the US Capitol. People in this camp point to comments that Trump told his followers the day of the riots, “We’re going to have to fight much harder.” He continued saying, “if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore,” and finally, “We are going to the Capitol. We are going to walk down, and I’ll be there with you.” Trump’s support among self-identified Republicans fell to 70% in the polling, conducted Jan 8 - 12 in the wake of the Capitol riot, down from a peak of 88% last summer. That is the lowest level of his presidency. His approval sank to just 29% among all Americans.
However, most Trump supporters continue to believe in the narrative that Democrats (and co-conspirators) rigged and stole the election. Eight in 10 Republicans don’t trust the results of the 2020 election and believe social media companies should lift their restrictions on Trump. In terms of impeachment support, American’s are nearly split down the middle, but only 15% of Republicans are in favor. The most common arguments for and against Trump impeachment are below:
NO: The impeachment process will be messy, time-consuming, and distract from Biden’s first 100 days in office. Plus, it will undoubtedly inflame tensions in the country and (further) divide the nation. Additionally, impeachment is really a political mechanism, and with Trump departing office in five days, it’s unclear if it is appropriate, or even legal, for the Senate to pursue. It also establishes a dangerous precedent of former presidents being at risk for impeachment indefinitely after leaving office.
YES: Trump’s actions are deserving of impeachment. He needs to be held accountable for (1) leveraging his office and power to influence Georgia election results by asking the Election Commissioner to find votes and (2) inciting his supporters to charge the Capitol. An impeachment conviction (and follow-up vote) would prevent Trump from holding office again; it may be the only way for the Republican Party to rid itself from Trump.
After the impeachment vote this week, President Trump finally released a video condemning the riot, violence, and insurrection but took no responsibility for his part in the situation. Trump said he had no regrets about urging his supporters to march on Congress and that his speech was “totally appropriate.” The reality is Trump’s fate rests in Mitch McConnell’s hands as, without his impeachment vote, it’s doubtful the impeachment article will get enough votes.
Freedom of Speech:
Freedom of speech became a right guaranteed under the Constitution with the Bill of Rights ratification in 1791. No sooner had the First Amendment, with its prohibition against the passage of laws “abridging the freedom of speech,” become a reality than Congress passed the Sedition Act of 1798. (Sedition is the crime of revolting or inciting revolt against the government. Seditious speech is any false, malicious, or scandalous statements directed at the government or government officials. However, because of the broad protection of free speech under the First Amendment, prosecutions for sedition are rare. Nevertheless, sedition remains a crime in the United States. Rebellion and insurrection refer specifically to acts of violence against the state or its officers.) There is a long history of the tension between national security and freedom of speech, with Officials convinced that allowing people to be openly critical of the government would lead to violence and pose a risk to the United States.
People misunderstand the protections of our First Amendment. Freedom of speech is mostly about government behavior. Generally speaking, it means that the government may not jail, fine, or impose civil liability on people or organizations based on what they say or write, except in exceptional circumstances. However, the First Amendment does not protect speakers against private individuals or organizations, such as private employers, private colleges, or private landowners. The First Amendment restrains only the government.
Freedom of speech does NOT include the right to the following:
Incite actions that would harm others
Make or distribute obscene materials
Burn draft cards as an anti-war protest
Permit students to print articles in a school newspaper over the objections of the school administration
Students to make an obscene speech at a school-sponsored event
Students to advocate illegal drugs use at a school-sponsored event
There are situations in which the government can constitutionally restrict speech:
Defamation: False statements that damage a person’s reputation
True threats: Threats to commit a crime
“Fighting words:” Face-to-face personal insults that are likely to lead to an immediate fight (but this does not cover political statements)
Obscenity: Hard-core, highly sexually explicit pornography
Child pornography
Commercial advertising: Speech advertising a product or service is protected, but not as much as other speech.
Therefore, when Twitter bans President Trump or suspends accounts for violating service terms, this is not a violation of the First Amendment. It’s a business decision by a non-government entity, and there are consequences to every decision. Shares of Twitter (TWTR) sank more than 10% on Monday after the social media company permanently banned President Trump from the platform.
Still, there is growing concern that our platforms are increasingly partisan and media is devolving to ever-increasing extremes on both sides of the aisle. It’s a vicious cycle of brainwashing and confirmation bias. The notion of a “marketplace of ideas” is essential to a democracy and for citizens to make informed choices, with the underlying belief that “good” ideas eventually triumph over “bad” ones. The TRUTH problem is becoming more difficult to ascertain with social media’s proliferation, citizen journalism (my newsletter included!), and other forms of unverified content. The web has democratized content with the low cost to produce and access to ubiquitous distribution. Therefore, it’s important to remember two things: 1) don’t believe everything you hear or read and do your fact-checking from credible sources, not the dark web, and 2) keep the words of Abraham Lincoln close to your heart, “We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained, it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory will swell when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.”
Censorship
This week Twitter suspended 70,000 accounts, including permanently banning President Trump. Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter, suggested the ban was due to a breach of the company’s terms of service and that these accounts encouraged violence. Conservatives were outraged and told the company was censoring conservative views and that the company didn’t consistently enforce the terms of service. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has a Twitter account (https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir) with 878k followers and made tweets inciting violence towards the US and Israel. Nicolas Maduro, who has committed extensive and systematic human rights abuses in Venezuela, is a frequent Twitter user (https://twitter.com/maduro_en?lang=en). You can put “#killtrump” into Twitter and get a list of search results. How are these examples not a violation of Twitter’s service terms? Jack Dorsey defended the company’s actions but did voice concerns over the precedent and emphasized the importance of free and open internet.
The social media fun didn’t stop with Twitter. Parler is a two-year-old social media platform proclaimed as a “free speech platform” and envisioned as a Libertarian platform for conservatives. Parler doubled to 10 million daily users last year. (Twitters has 187 million daily users and Facebook 1.8 billion). Founder and CEO John Matze, who is 27-years-old, told Fox News “people are tired” of Silicon Valley censorship. High-profile users include Maria Bartiromo, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul. The platform has some deep-pocketed investors. Rebekah Mercer, daughter of hedge-fund investor Robert Mercer, is among the company’s financial backers. She said her investment and support of the platform is an answer to what she called the “ever increasing tyranny and hubris of our tech overlords.” The Mercers have previously financed many conservative causes.
Parler is currently offline because Amazon Web Services (AWS) stopped hosting it on Sunday, citing 98 examples of posts that encourage and incite violence. Amazon said it “cannot provide services to a customer that is unable to effectively identify and remove content that encourages or incites violence against others.” Google and Apple have both removed Parler from their online stores due to its lack of content moderation policies.
These actions have enraged conservatives and reinforced their narrative that liberals control mainstream media. The other challenge is these bans don’t eradicate the views or bad actors behind them. Instead, these opinions get pushed underground and splinter into more radical and dangerous groups. It’s shocking to see extremists’ comments and beliefs, but I’d rather know they exist than have them lurking beneath the surface.
The other problem with bans is another technology will simply surface in its place. It’s like playing whack-a-mole. For example, Signal is a free, privacy-focused secure messaging app created in 2013. All you need is a phone number to join. It has end to end encryption, which means only the people in the messages can see those messages’ content, not even the company itself. Plus, the Signal collects virtually no data on its users. Signal’s organization is an independent and non-profit organization run by a foundation, not a big tech company. As a non-profit, It has no advertising, so there’s no incentive to collect user data. Signal has been the communication method of choice for activists, hackers, and others concerned about privacy.
Economics
President-elect Joe Biden announced a $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid plan called the “American Rescue Plan.” The funding breaks down as follows:
$1 trillion in aid to families, including direct payments of $1,400 stimulus checks.
Unemployment insurance increase to $400 per week (from $300) extended through September
$400 billion to fight coronavirus, earmarked for vaccination campaign, increased testing, and pandemic supplies
$350 billion for struggling state and local government
$130 billion to help schools reopen and $35 billion in funding for higher education
$30 billion for rental assistance (including an eviction moratorium through September) and $5 billion to secure housing for the homeless.
Increase in the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour from the current $7.25 per hour
Lighter Side:
Hallelujah, playoff football dominates the weekend. Tom Brady, 43, will lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against Drew Brees, 42, of the New Orleans Saints. The two hall-of-fame quarterbacks are 1st and 2nd in the NFL record books for virtually every passing category. The other interesting storyline to the game is the age of the quarterbacks. When Tom Brady won his first Super Bowl, 75% of his teammates were in elementary school or younger. Sunday’s game marks the third time these teams have played this year, with the Saints winning the previous two contests.
HBO debuted the first of a two-part documentary on Tiger Woods for anyone who doesn’t love football. It’s a delicious 1.5 hours of content and explores Tiger’s childhood, relationship with his father, past girlfriends, and sets the stage for his sexual escapades and eventual fall from grace. HBO also announced they are reviving “Sex and the City” with three original stars. Kim Cattrall, who played Samantha, will not join the reboot. The series will follow Carrie, Miranda, and Charlotte as they navigate the “complicated reality of life and friendship” in their 50s. The first run of the show spanned six seasons, winning seven Emmys and eight Golden Globes awards.
A British man named James Howells started mining Bitcoin about a decade ago when it was of little value. He accumulated 7,500 bitcoins and stored the digital currency on his computer hard drive. He accidentally trashed the hard drive in 2013 and realized the bitcoins he possessed is worth over $270 million. The hard drive is gone, and there is no way for him to recover this valuable possession. Howells offered local authorities $70 million for permission to excavate the landfill site in search of his hard drive, the equivalent of $239 per person for the city’s entire city population. I get frustrated when I lose a sock, so I can’t imagine Howells’ plight.
I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:
Bring the insurrectionists to justice
The undoing of China’s economic miracle
The science of why Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates still do the dishes
The four keys that could unlock procrastination
Why our pursuit of happiness may be flawed
II. Stats that made me go WOW!
- Bitcoin fell more than 20% to start the week before a slight rebound. The possibility of a second impeachment for President Trump encouraged safe-haven flows into the dollar.
- Research indicates that only 26% of people leave the office having accomplished the tasks they set out to do.
- This week, the PGA of America cut ties with President Trump and his branded properties because it deemed the association with the Trump name a negative for their brand.
III. Name that Tune!
As I write this email, I am listening to “What’s Going On” by Marvin Gaye.
Marvin Gaye helped shape Motown’s sound in the 1960s and earned the nickname “Prince of Motown.” Gaye fled the US for Europe, relocating to Ostend, Belgium, after his second divorce to evade his tax problems with the IRS and recover from cocaine abuse and depression. The album What’s Going On dropped in 1971 and was Gaye’s first self-produced work post-Motown. The Vietnam war, plus police brutality, played a vital role in inspiring the album’s concept. The lyrics described the perspective of a veteran returning home to America and greeted with suffering and injustice. The song sold over two million copies. Rolling Stone named What’s Going On as No. 1 on the magazine’s list of “500 Greatest Albums of All Time.”
On April 1, 1984, the day before his 45th birthday, Marvin Gaye was shot and killed by his father in Los Angeles. Authorities charged Gaye’s father with first-degree murder, but following the discovery of a brain tumor diagnosis, the charges reduced to voluntary manslaughter. The courts issued a suspended six-year sentence and probation. Gaye’s father died at a nursing home in 1988.
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