Episode 34: Night the Lights Went Out in Georgia
We are one week into the new year, and it's already a historic year. It's as if 2021 looked over its shoulder at 2020 and, in a gruff, baritone voice, bellowed, "Last year ain't nothing, kid. Hold my beer and watch daddy work!"
What happened?
Our nation's Capitol in Washington, DC, a worldwide symbol of freedom and democracy, was breached this week by mutineers attempting to overturn a legal, democratic election. The last time insurgents occupied the Capitol was 1814 when British troops set fire to the building during a broader attack on Washington in the War of 1812. Fast forward two hundred years, and hundreds if not thousands of Trump supporters masquerading as "patriots" laid seize to our hallowed grounds and vandalized and desecrated buildings and property, injuring over 56 police officers, one fatally. Four others died on Capitol grounds during the incident, one female rioter from a gunshot and the others from undisclosed medical emergencies. When the smoke cleared (literally), there were 68 arrests, 60 of which were adult males and eight adult females. Only one of the people arrested lived in DC. More arrests are expected, and law enforcement is investigating various persons of interest. (The irony is the MAGA supporters' lack of mask-wearing will help law enforcement identify and arrest them. #karma) The DC police department posted images of the persons of interest. Tips can be shared anonymously (by phone 202-727-9099 or text 50411) and directed to various agencies, including the FBI. Authorities are offering a $1,000 reward for any information that leads to a conviction for any of the rioters; the FBI is offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to the conviction of the person or people responsible for pipe bombs found at the RNC and DNC headquarters.
The Mayor of DC, Muriel Bowser, and Virginia Governor Ralph Northam ordered a public emergency for 15 days and a 6 pm curfew this week. Neighboring states are provisioning up to 6,200 national guardsmen to camp on the Capitol for a minimum of 30 days. Further, a seven-foot, unscalable fence will be erected around the entire Capitol for an undisclosed period, perhaps permanently. It seems Trump built the wrong wall, in the wrong location, for the wrong group of dissidents. Officials are imploring citizens to refrain from counter-protests to ease the burden on law enforcement and deescalate the situation.
How did we get here?
Sadly, like most US disasters such as The Great Depression, Pearl Harbor, and 9/11, it's glaringly obvious in retrospect how things happened. For the tragedy that occurred this week (and this was a historic disaster), you need to step back several decades and trace a series of events. The loss of America's industrial base this century shipped high paying blue-collar jobs abroad. Since 2001, the country has lost 42,000 factories, including 36% of factories that employ more than 1,000 workers. Consequently, middle-income households decreased from 61% in 1971 to 51% in 2019. Simultaneously, a series of favorable tax policies, aggressive monetary policy (suppressing interest rates), an expansionary fiscal policy created an explosion in asset prices, namely real estate and equities. These events and actions led to an abundance of wealth concentration for a section of society. Over the last thirty years, upper-income households have increased from 14% to 20%, while the lowest-income families have grown from 25% to 29%. In other words, a small group benefited from the nation's policies and got rich, while others floundered and fell further behind.
Meanwhile, public education quality declined, especially in low-income areas, along with economic opportunity, and those with funds to access private schools or move to regions with outstanding public schools prospered. It's a cycle of success and a chain of poverty. Small towns used to be the bedrock of this country. However, these heartland areas have been decimated the last decade. Between 2008 and 2017, metropolitan areas represented 99% of all job and population growth in the country. As an example of small town suffering, 69 of Iowa’s 99 counties have contracted over the last decade. Increasingly, there is no middle ground, and we are becoming a society of haves and have nots. I think Cancel Culture played a part, too. Political correctness raised awareness and sensitivity to specific groups' misfortunes and wounds, but over pursuit of these ideals conquered common sense. And well-intentioned efforts at social progress (LGBTQ rights, sexual harassment prevention, gender equality, etc.) earned historic wins. Still, these movements carried a sharp ax, blind to degrees of culpability and absent context and intention, creating carnage along the way. The bottom line is all of these events left many Americans feeling disenfranchised, forgotten, and hopeless.
Donald Trump capitalized on these trends and became a cultural hero to these people. Trump supporters believed that following Trump, their savior, was the path to redemption and tantamount to patriotism. Trump's demagoguery followed a classic formula of notorious figures in history—Mussolini, Hitler, and McCarthy--targeting disenfranchised groups as disciples and benefactors of an all-powerful ruler who used xenophobic rhetoric to scapegoated minorities for societal ills. At the moment, these charismatic figures offer a cathartic solution to people who are suffering. As far back as 2015, Trump has been connected to documented acts of violence against minorities, with perpetrators claiming that he was their inspiration. In 2016, a white man told officers, "Donald Trump will fix them" while being arrested for threatening his black neighbors with a knife. The same year, a Florida man threatened to burn down a house next to his because a Muslim family purchased it, claiming Trump's Muslim ban made it a reason for "concern." Cesar Sayoc mailed 16 inoperative pipe bombs to Democratic leaders and referred to Trump as a "surrogate father." In the mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, in 2019 that left 23 dead, the shooter's manifesto parroted Trump's rhetoric about immigrants. In August, Trump defended a teenage supporter who shot three people at a BLM protest. And in October, Trump danced around the condemnation of the domestic terrorists who planned to kidnap and kill Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer; instead, he used the airtime to criticize her leadership.
Of course, the most potent flame lit was around this year's general election. Trump knew his re-election prospects were dim due to his handling of COVID and a failing economy. He strategically planted the seeds of doubt with supporters back in the spring about voter fraud. It was his excuse and defense in the event he lost the election. The kerosene was on the logs. All Trump had to do was wait for the perfect opportunity to light the match and watch things burn. Of course, Trump lost the election and cried foul. This election was not close. Trump lost the popular vote by 7 million votes. He lost the Electoral College 306 to 232, the same margin he won in 2016 over Hillary Clinton; the elections in 2000 and 2004 were much closer. However, Trump insisted the Democrats stole the election. He filed over 50 lawsuits in multiple states and had ZERO legal victories of consequence. The courts dismissed most cases for lack of evidence. For the hand full of claims that did merit a ruling, judges (many of which were Trump appointees) issued damning opinions. The conservative-leaning Supreme Court even ruled against Trump swiftly and decisively.
Finally, with lawmakers such as Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz and right-wing media, President Trump gave MAGA loyalists hope post-election that it was merely a matter of time before the election results would change and award a second term. The seductive promise that "something big was coming that would change everything" never happened because it didn't exist. That's the criminal part. Lies and misinformation led to impassioned and false expectations. Even Trump's appointed Attorney General, William Barr confirmed no widespread election fraud, but the Trump propaganda machine kept churning, poisoning supporters' minds. I remember talking to two dear friends last week who support Trump, and I asked them about their confidence that the election would get overturned and Trump remain in office. Their response: 100%. It was shocking. The fact that educated, decent people could believe after all of the evidence—vote tallies, recounts, court rulings—that Trump still had an even 1% chance of staying in office bewildered me. But 100%?
Leading up to this week, all ten former secretaries of defense warned that "to involved the US armed forces in resolving election disputes would take us into dangerous, unlawful and unconstitutional territory." American elections and peaceful transfers of power are hallmarks of our democracy. The US had an unbroken record of such transitions since 1789, except for 1861 when President-elect Abraham Lincoln replaced James Buchanan and seven southern states left the Union.
The Insurrection
And this week, President Trump orchestrated, and select Republican Congress members fomented the insurrection. Trump called on his loyalists to stage a rally in DC on January 6th, the day Congress would certify the election. Ordinarily, this is a rubber-stamp ceremony lacking in drama. However, this year would be different. The rigged election narrative and Trump's incessant pleas that VP Mike Pence "do the right thing" and nullify the state's votes (which is not even legal) captured the headlines, creating an ocean of anxiety and uncertainty leading up to the vote count. Then, in what feels in retrospect like a synchronized act, Ted Cruz objected to Arizona's electoral vote total. The joint session recessed so both chambers could debate the issue. At the same time, Trump pulled the proverbial match out of his pocket. He stoked his core base's emotions with divisive rhetoric, conspiracy theories, and lies, essentially fluffing his "red-hats" for the porno of violence to follow. It was time, and he ordered his faithful to action: "We will walk down to the Capitol, and I'll be with you." His final battle cry: "You will never take back our country with weakness." Poof! The rally morphed into a protest and quickly turned into a riot. Tens of thousands of angry Trump supporters, with a mob mentality, marched 15 blocks down Pennsylvania Avenue, stormed the barricades, and swarmed inside the Capitol and surrounding buildings. Police officers sprinted down hallways in the Madison and Canon Buildings, screaming for workers to "evacuate," This gives a new and modern spin to Paul Revere's the "red hats are coming!" Law enforcement was overwhelmed. The mob broke into the Rotunda, and then breached the Senate chamber, one insurgent, commanding the speaker's seat and declaring "Trump won the election!" Meanwhile, President Trump was MIA, watching the events unfold on TV, likely with a smile of satisfaction akin to a General overlooking the battlefield. Eventually, Trump tweeted, "I am asking everyone at the Capitol to remain peaceful."
One vandal even broke into Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office and propped his feet up on her desk. (I hope he at least made himself useful and signed some stimulus checks.) It was only after President-elect Biden addressed the nation and implored President Trump to address the situation that Trump released a video saying, "I understand. I'm angry, too. Go home. We love you, and you are very special." Wait, what? How about stand the fuck down, stop all forms of violence, and anyone rioting will be prosecuted and face jail time?
How do we move forward?
For starters, anyone who breached the grounds of the Capitol, even peacefully, engaged in criminal behavior and should be prosecuted. What happened this week is unforgivable, and many of our leaders are complicit. Most importantly, this will be a permanent stain on the legacy of Donald Trump. Before this week, it's possible history would be kinder to Trump than the mainstream press and hard-core Democrats. (Time, space, and a dose of nostalgia are a magical formula for positive PR when it comes to former Presidents.) However, this week left an indelible black mark on the nation that will forever be associated with President Trump.
As for all the MAGA supporters, I hope this is your wake up call. This request is not an "I told you so" moment, nor am I experiencing any form of schadenfreude, as we are all losers this week. I call many of you friends, some even close friends. You can believe in the policies that are core to your values—a love of country, capitalism, economic opportunity, strong defense, family values, right to bear arms, law and order, and border control and STILL reject President Trump. He is a con man and master manipulator who has stoked your fears and fantasies for his self-interest and, along the way, harmed our nation and destroyed the Republican party. This week isn't about Democrat vs. Republican or Liberal vs. Conservative. It's about right vs. wrong. Let's unite, “blue hat” and “red hat,” white and black, against President Trump and his cronies. Democracy is at stake, and our nation will only survive if we come together.
Now, for Democrats and left-leaning citizens of this country, it's important to remember you don't have a mandate. There are 74 million who voted for Trump and disagree with your policies. The Trump phenomenon surfaced because many people, mostly in outlying rural areas, feel disenfranchised and forgotten. They don't recognize their country or identify with many of the policies you champion. Drop any form of winner's attitude, and listen to the "other side." This election victory is not the time for revenge politics. Please don't spend the next four years reversing everything enacted under Trump and condescending to his supporters. That approach will only divide the nation further and set us in a spin cycle with no forward momentum. Let's focus on doing a few things well that serve both sides instead of boiling the ocean and failing at everything. My shortlist of suggested priorities are as follows:
Solve the COVID pandemic by year-end and prepare the nation's infrastructure for the next virus (as its coming at some point)
Get our economy back on track (prioritizing small business)
Make healthcare accessible and affordable and focus on improving the health of our citizens (we are a very sick nation, well before COVID hit)
Invest in critical infrastructures such as public schools, bridges, roads, airports, rails systems, and public transportation
Address climate change by making strategic investments in industries and workers that help transform our economy and lower our carbon footprint
Embrace austerity measures that start to address our debt issue (a topic for next week's newsletter).
As for Trump's last days in office, let's pray that they are peaceful. Twitter and Facebook banned Trump from their platforms for some time, so through a staff member Trump tweeted, he would ensure an "orderly" transition of power. Let's hope orderly is also peaceful as Trump remains our Commander in Chief for another 12 days. Several Trump cabinet members and administration officials tendered their resignation after this week's events. Education Secretary Betsy DeVos and Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao (wife of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell) stepped down from the cabinet. Mike Mulvaney, former Chief of Staff and current special envoy to Northern Ireland, called Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and said, "I can't do it. I can't stay."
Democrats are calling for VP Mike Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump from office. The 25th Amendment was enacted in the wake of JFK's assassination to create a clear line of succession and prepare for urgent contingencies. For this measure to occur, VP Mike Pence would have to be on board and support the majority of the active cabinet members. This scenario is improbable. However, the legislature could impeach Trump, but with only 12 days left in office, any action would be symbolic as there's not enough time to run that process. (Reminder: Trump was impeached by the House over his Ukraine activities but was not removed from office by the Senate.) In all likelihood, in the next 12 days, both sides of the aisle will grandstand with passionate rhetoric, but in the end, nothing will happen, and Trump will hold the ball and run out the clock. At the end of the game, Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States. Trump is not interested in shaking hands with the winning team as he tweeted this morning, "To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th." Finally, a good decision that’s best for the country.
As for Republican Congressional members who, despite Wednesday's events, still questioned and voted against the election results, shame on you; I hope voters remember your actions and cast their vote accordingly. Here is a list of the guilty parties.
What got lost in this week's kerfuffle?
It's hard to believe the top story this week wasn't the fact the Republicans lost control of the Senate. Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated GOP incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler by approximately 83,000 votes in a special run-off election. Warnock's victory was somewhat expected. Loeffler was appointed to her senate seat by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp in 2019 to replace Senator Johnny Isakson after he announced retirement due to deteriorating health related to Parkinson's disease. Warnock is a reverend at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where MLK Jr served as co-pastor with his father. Loeffler is pro-gun rights, anti-abortion, and a Trump loyalist. She announced at the Trump rally this week that she would object to the certification of Biden's Electoral College win. There's no question that Loeffler's connection to the Trump train hurt her on Election Day.
What was shocking was Democrat Jon Ossoff's victory over GOP incumbent Sen. David Perdue. Perdue held his seat since 2015, and he came within 0.5% of avoiding a run-off election back on November 3rd and registered roughly 88,000 more votes than Ossoff. It appears Perdue got caught in Trump's wake of chaos, and Ossoff earned a come-from-behind victory in the run-off beating Perdue by 45,000 votes. Ossoff, 33, is the youngest Democrat elected to the Senate since Biden in 1972. In Georgia, the two Senate wins evened the Upper Chamber's count at 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans. However, since Joe Biden won the general election, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will preside over the Senate and cast the deciding vote in the event of a tie. For Republicans, January 5th was the night the lights went out in Georgia.
COVID
It was nice to get a break from COVID news, but sadly, the virus didn't go on holiday. The 17 million trailers over the Christmas and New Year are accelerating the virus infection rate and death toll. The US set records this week for hospitalizations (+130,000) and daily deaths (+4,000). There are now eight states who have registered cases of the new variant of COVID. This strain of the virus is so pervasive and fast-spreading in the UK that the country put in place lockdown orders that will last through February.
I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:
8 principles for living a more adventurous life
The next normal arrives: Trends that will define 2021—and beyond
Strategies for CEOs and business owners to reduce stress
8 things for small businesses to know about coronavirus relief bill (and PPP)
Trends facing business in 2021 and beyond
II. Stats that made me go WOW!
- Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to reach $146,000 in the long term as it competes with golf as an asset class, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Bitcoin breached $40,000 for the first time this week and is up 100% in the last month and up 1,000% since the start of 2019. Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Securities, called Bitcoin the “mother of all bubbles.”
- A survey of business-travel managers found that they expect business-travel spending in 2021 will only be half that of 2019.
- In the United States, the penetration of e-commerce was forecast in 2019 to reach 24 percent by 2024; by July 2020, it had hit 33 percent of total retail sales. To put it another way, the first half of 2020 saw an increase in e-commerce equivalent to that of the previous ten years.
- In the third quarter of 2020 alone, there were more than 1.5 million new-business applications in the United States—almost double the figure for the same period in 2019. France saw 84,000 new business formations in October, the highest ever recorded. Germany has also seen an increase in new businesses from 2019; ditto for Japan and the UK.
- Private Equity (PE) firms are sitting on almost $1.5 trillion of “dry powder”—unallocated capital that’s ready to be invested. Global deal value down 12 percent compared with the first three quarters of 2019, and deal counts down 30 percent.
III. Name that Tune!
As I write this email, I am listening to “The Night the Lights Went Out in Georgia” by Reba McEntire.
The song was written and composed in 1972 by Bobby Russell and sung by Vicki Lawrence, an American pop singer, actress, and comedian (who was married to Russell). The song was offered to Liza Minelli and then Cher, but both refused over concerns the lyrics may offend southern fans. Lawrence’s version was a number one hit on the Billboard Hot 100. In 1981, country singer Tanya Tucker recorded a version with differing lyrics, based on the film The Night the Lights Went Out in Georgia. The song was again a hit in 1991 when Reba McEntire recorded it for her album. Reba grew up in Oklahoma and started her music career in high school, singing on local radio shows and rodeos. Country artist Red Steagall discovered Reba at a rodeo when she sang the national anthem. She moved to Nashville, TN, and signed a contract with Mercury Records a year later in 1975. Reba has released 29 studio albums, acquired 24 number one singles, 16 number one albums, and 28 albums certified platinum or multi-platinum. She is often referred to as the “The Queen of Country” and sold more than 75 million records worldwide.
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