This week witnessed several firsts for the US with the pandemic: 200,000 cases and 3,000 deaths in a single day (both +100% increases from the prior month), and over 100,000 COVID patients in the hospital. LA county recorded the highest infection count in the country. The CA governor, Gavin Newsom, announced new restrictions for areas where hospitals are nearing capacity, including shuttering outdoor dining, closing playgrounds, and limiting retail store capacity to 20%. Of course, these restrictions come at an inopportune time for hospitality and retail businesses with the holidays. Cities, including Beverly Hills, are thinking about creating local public health departments to push back on county orders.
The CDC updated guidelines on COVID and recommended anyone exposed should quarantine for 7-10 days vs. the previous policy of 14 days. A person can end a self-quarantine at seven days after exposure if they test negative and have no symptoms. Without a test, a person should self-quarantine for ten days and monitor themselves an additional four days for symptoms, the agency said. The CDC defines close contact as being within 6 feet of an infected person for at least 15 minutes over 24 hours. The CDC officials recommended people get tested one to three days before traveling and three to five days afterward for people who intend to travel. People should also reduce nonessential activities for seven days after traveling.
The UK is the first country to give emergency authorization for the Pfizer vaccine. Health workers and senior citizens in nursing homes will be the first to get the vaccine next week, which is called “BNT162b2.” The US plans to grant emergency authorization next week for the vaccine, and health officials suggest anyone in the country who wants a vaccine will have access by June. Many Americans are reluctant to take the vaccine given the accelerated timeline for vaccine development and a short trial period. However, health officials are united in supporting the vaccine as a safe and reliable measure to protect against the virus. The country needs to get to 70-80% vaccination to achieve herd immunity. Vaccine trials typically only include healthy participants, but this trial included people over 65 and those with underlying health conditions. Children were not part of the tests, so kids shouldn’t take the vaccine until more data is available. It’s not clear yet if the vaccine is a one and done process or if an annual booster is needed to maintain immunity.
US employers created 245k jobs in November, down from 610,000 in October, with the unemployment rate edging down to 6.7%. Still, 10.7 million Americans are unemployed, compared with 5.8 million before the pandemic. Job growth concentrated in several sectors, mostly related to e-commerce and health care. E-commerce continues to set records. During a five-day stretch that included Black Friday ($9 billion) and Cyber Monday($10.8 billion), online shopping increased 44% over last year, per the National Retail Federation. UPS will ship an estimated 7 million products each day between now and Xmas.
Tax revenue is down because of the pandemic, and federal aid is about to expire, so state and local governments face budget cuts to policing, libraries, drug treatment, and more. Most economists predict slow or no growth in the 1H of 2021. Moody’s Analytics forecasts that the economy will fall into a new recession early next year without more aid, with the unemployment rate approaching 10 percent. Several federal programs expire end of the year, which would leave an estimated 12 million people with no income during the worst phase of the pandemic. Measures set to expire on Dec 31st include the following:
Approximately five million people out of work for at least six months who receive $1,253 a month.
A provision that extended jobless benefits to 39 weeks from the usual 26 weeks.
A federal moratorium on evicting people from their homes.
A tax credit that has given more than 125,000 companies an incentive not to lay off workers.
Companies will lose the ability to defer payroll taxes and take deductions for business losses.
Approximately $150 billion in aid for state and local governments.
Congress failed to pass a new coronavirus relief package before the election. The Democrats wanted a $2.2 trillion “HEROES Act” package, while the Republicans wanted a more modest effort in the $500 billion range. The clock is ticking as the Lower Chamber recesses for the year next week and the Upper Chamber the following week. There is some reason for optimism as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer presented a bipartisan $908 billion compromise bill as a starting point for new talks. For those keeping score, before the Election, Pelosi turned down a $1.8 trillion offer from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who was negotiating on behalf of the Trump administration, citing significant differences on policy details. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell remains focused on a $500 billion package but did say the two sides are close to a deal. The bipartisan package includes the following elements: 1) a COVID-related “liability shield” for businesses and other organizations that have reopened 2) additional jobless benefits of $300/week, a smaller supplement than the $600 weekly infusion from the spring 3) $160 billion for state and local governments, schools, paycheck protection subsidies, and transportation. What’s missing is another round of $1,200 direct payments. Even if the two parties can agree on Capitol Hill, there is one more hurdle. President Trump would have to sign the bill in his final weeks in office. President-elect Joe Biden has pushed for a compromise deal but said that further stimulus would be necessary for 2021.
Iran’s top nuclear scientist was assassinated, and government officials are blaming Israel. Intelligence agencies say there is little doubt that Israel was behind the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh as it had the hallmarks of a Mossad operation. Plus, Israel has done nothing to dispel that view. Israel has long identified Iran as an existential threat and named the assassinated scientist as national enemy No. 1. Iran pledged to continue the work of Fakhrizadeh, who is the architect of the country’s secretive nuclear program. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, said that Iranian officials must commit themselves to “pursuing this crime and punishing its perpetrators and those who commanded it.” Iran has been on the receiving end of visible and damaging attacks in recent weeks. First came the killing of General Qassim Suleimani, the Iranian commander who ran the Revolutionary Guard’s special forces unit and speculated to plot acts of terror against the US. In July, there was a mysterious explosion at a centrifuge research and development center. And now the killing of Fakhrizadeh. These incidents have inflamed tensions in the region, and lethal retaliation is expected. Iran’s President, Hassan Rouhani, said in a televised cabinet meeting that “once again, the evil hands of global arrogance and the Zionist mercenaries were stained with the blood of an Iranian son, and that Iran would respond in due course.” The assassination presents President-elect Biden with a challenging Foreign Relations problem on day one and a complicated path to restoring the 2015 accord that he and Obama spearheaded to curtail Iran’s nuclear activities. In 2018, President Trump withdrew from the nuclear accord, but President-elect Biden wants to reactivate it.
Snap, the parent of popular app Snapchat, which boasts 250 million users, is launching Spotlight, a new section of its app that will showcase user-created videos. Snap is also throwing some serious money at the effort. The company says it will pay out $1 million per day through the end of the year to users who share the most popular clips. So next time you see your kids on their phone at dinner, encourage more of it, and fill out a W-9 form! Spotlight looks similar to TikTok and Instagram’s Reels. It features auto-playing vertical videos, and you can swipe up or down to move between clips quickly. An algorithm will determine which clips appear in your feed, though you can also dive into specific topics. The company isn’t sharing exactly how much a user can expect to make. However, it notes payments are based on a formula that “rewards Snapchatters primarily based on the total number of unique video views a Snap gets in a given day.” For now, the company is committing to spending a million dollars a day through the end of the year.
This week featured several pieces of aviation news. Boeing’s 737 Max plane is back in the air after two crashes killed 346 people and sidelined the aircraft for nearly two years. The deadly error was a software malfunction and faulty sensor that caused the aircraft’s nose to dive. The company took journalists on a test run this week. The plane now features two sensors and can only send the nose down once, making the original error impossible. The plane’s first commercial flight will be on American Air on Dec 29th from Miami to NY. A space tourism startup, Space Perspective, raised $7M in seed funding to pursue its balloon spacecraft’s first test launch. The company’s spaceship Neptune can carry up to eight passengers on a six-hour journey into orbit, landing in the Atlantic Ocean. The first test flight is early next year.
The US. Transportation Department said that dogs would be the only “emotional-support” animals allowed in commercial planes’ passenger cabins. Therefore, regulators have ended a rule that permitted air passengers to travel with unusual animals if they had a doctor’s note saying they needed emotional support from their pets. After sharing a cross-country flight with a “support pig” a few years ago, I am delighted with this news. I am confident I am not alone. In 2018, TSA blocked a passenger from taking her emotional support peacock on a cross-country flight. That same year, Spirit Airlines prevented a woman from flying with her emotional support squirrel. And the Idiot of the Year award goes to a college student who flushed her dwarf hamster “support animal” down the toilet once the airline said she couldn’t fly with the rodent. The incident caused the airline to update the website and clarify that it “does not accept snakes, other reptiles, rodents, ferrets, and spiders” on flights. Samuel Jackson can sleep better with this knowledge.
Time magazine named its Kid of the Year: Water-testing scientist Gitanjali Rao. Warner Bros, a subsidiary of AT&T’s WarnerMedia, will release all of its movies simultaneously on AT&T’s streaming service, HBO Max, and theaters next year. This new development applies to 17 films slated for release next year and will be a nice bonus for the 8.6 million HBO Max subscribers. AMC and Cinemark stock fell 16% and 22%, respectively, on the news. With cheap flat-screen TVs and elaborate home theatre devices, it’s hard to imagine the theater industry will recover post-pandemic.
A South African lottery jackpot announced the winning numbers of the Powerball: 5,6,7,8,9,10. Each of the 20 individuals who picked those consecutive numbers received the equivalent of $376,000. The National Lottery Commission issued a statement: “This occurrence, while uncommon, is not impossible, with the odds of any set of numbers for Powerball being 1 in 42 million.” Lastly, the rapper and entertainer Drake is selling a new scented candle that smells like himself. The only thing more disturbing is KFC rolled out self-driving chicken trucks in China. I wonder if the waft of finger-lickin-good chicken will cover up the scent of Drake? Let’s hope so.
I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:
China is national security threat No. 1
Heads in the sand: why we fail to force and contain catastrophe
“Trump Is Better:” In Asia, pro-democracy forces worry about Biden
Investors pile into risky ETFs spring wild market rally
Do you have e-charisma on Zoom? Here’s how to get it
II. Stats that made me go WOW!
- According to a paper published in the Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, a $1 increase in the minimum wage correlates to a 3.5% decline in the suicide rate among adults aged 18 to 64 with a high-school education or less. The report’s authors suggest a $1 increase would have prevented 27,550 suicides in the 25 years covered by the research; a $2 increase would have prevented 57,000.
- President Trump just made citizenship harder by increasing the number and complexity of questions posed to immigrants. Applicants need to answer 12 out of 20 correctly vs. six out of ten today. Critics argue the new test could make it harder for poor immigrants from non-English-speaking countries to become citizens and ultimately suppress the number of immigrants who vote. The current pass rate for the citizenship test, according to USCIS, is 91 percent. However, surveys show that only one in three Americans could pass. Test your knowledge and abilities with this sample set of questions.
- The rule of 72 is a way to estimate how long it will take for something to double. So, if sign-ups are growing by 5% each week, they will take roughly 14 weeks (72÷5) to double, assuming you don’t have any churn.
- Mortgage rates continue their free fall, hitting a record low for the 14th time this year. The 30-year fixed-rate home loan fell to 2.71%, down from 3.68% a year ago. The average rate on 15-year fixed-rate loans declined to 2.26%.
- There’s a new app to determine tuna quality and locate the premium sections of the fish. Here’s a link to show the app in action.
- Most cities plant only male trees because it’s expensive to clear the fruit that falls from female trees. Male trees release pollen, and that’s one of the reasons your allergies and hay fever may be getting worse.
- The global e-commerce market for spirits and wine is expected to nearly double this year, notching a 42% increase since last year. China is currently the top market for e-commerce alcohol sales, but the US will overtake China next year.
III. Name that Tune!
As I write this email, I am listening to "Blurred Lines" by Robin Thicke.
Robin Thicke is an American-Canadian singer, songwriter, musician, and actor. He is the son of actress Gloria Loring from Days of Our Lives and the late actor Alan Thicke of the hit sitcom Growing Pains. Thicke moved out on his own at age 17, during his senior year of high school. He earned a living and supported himself as a record producer and songwriter. In 2013, Thicke released “Blurred Lines,” featuring T.I. and Pharrell as the lead single on his sixth studio album, also titled Blurred Lines. The song became the subject of a bitter legal dispute with the family of Marvin Gaye, who argued the song infringed on copyrights of Gaye’s “Got to Give it Up.” Williams and Thicke were found guilty of copyright infringement in 2015, and Gaye awarded posthumous songwriting credit, and royalties pledged to his estate. “Blurred Lines” peaked at number one in 25 countries and became the number one song of 2013 in several countries, including the US. But the real win for men around the world was the music video, which introduced us to Emily Ratajkowski. God bless.
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Now I need to know what Drake smells like.