Episode 27: With or Without You
With the Election (mostly) behind us, coronavirus is back in the pole position this week. Cases are spiking around the world. The US is averaging 200,000 new cases a day, surpassing 11 million confirmed cases since the pandemic started. Unfortunately, a record 80,000 Americans are receiving hospital treatment for the virus, a 25% increase from the previous week. The total death toll has surpassed 260,000. Several states announced restrictions to combat the surge, ranging from a shut down of gyms and movie theaters to a ban on indoor dining and in-person classes. The CDC even issued a recommendation to cancel Thanksgiving for fear that travel will accelerate infections. The media also featured a doctor saying, “gather for Thanksgiving, and your next gathering will be for a funeral at Xmas.” This type of hyperbole is irresponsible journalism and creates more harm than good. Some states like Oregon have passed laws that prohibit a gathering of more than six people, and the penalty is a $1,250 fine and up to one month in jail! It’s incredible to think that you can get jail time for gathering at Thanksgiving but not face time behind bars for carrying hard narcotics such as heroin and meth. How did we get here? New York City public schools, the largest district in the country, announced a return to remote learning due to a spike in COVID cases. The school system established a self-imposed trigger of a 3% infection rate back in the Spring. The district hit that mark this week. The controversial decision impacts over 300,000 children and families. Mayor Bill de Blasio faces extreme backlash as opponents argue schools are the safest place for kids, and the fact remains many underprivileged children rely on public schools for free meals and social services.
California Governor, Gavin Newsom (Democrat), has played a vocal and public role in urging citizens to embrace health practices such as social distancing and wearing a mask during the pandemic. Newsom ordered aggressive lockdowns and restrictions for businesses and schools in the Golden State, and he’s condemned others for failure to follow the recommended guidelines. Therefore, it was shocking to learn Newsom dined indoors with people from other households at the Michelin-star restaurant, French Laundry, in Napa Valley. The group was not wearing a mask. Newsom received criticism for his actions and hypocrisy, although it was interesting that most media failed to report the gaffe. (Furthermore, Newsom’s children are back in school, while millions of LAUSD school children and their families struggle with remote learning.) Newsom brushed off the controversy and yesterday issued a stay-at-home curfew for California residents from 10 pm - 5 am, impacting 94% of the state’s population. It’s a good thing the virus only operates at night.
Despite the grim stats and trends, the positive news on the coronavirus was abundant this week. Moderna announced its vaccine tested 94.5% effective as part of Phase 3 clinical trials. The study involved 30,000 volunteers split between placebo and vaccine groups. Efficacy across groups—young people, elderly, racial, and ethnic minorities—was consistent. This announcement follows Pfizer’s news last week of a 90% effective vaccine. Once Moderna revealed the efficacy of their vaccine, Pfizer re-announced a 95% success rate! It’s like watching the maker of "8-minute Abs" get upstaged by "7-minute abs!" (There’s a funny scene in Something About Mary that comes to mind.) A third vaccine produced by Oxford University and AstraZeneca is also showing positive trial data. All of the vaccines require an initial dose and a second follow-up. If the two vaccines can get emergency authorization, up to 20 million people could get the vaccine in December. Broader distribution of the vaccine will be available in the Spring. Priority for the vaccine will go to front-line health workers, people over 65, high-risk individuals, first responders, and essential workers. Potential short-term side effects are similar to any vaccine—sore arm, muscle aches, fever, and fatigue. However, possible long-term side effects are unknown. Another positive development was the US Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization for the first COVID-19 diagnostic test for self-testing at home with rapid results.
The best news of the week when it comes to coronavirus was a story published in The NY Times regarding an extensive study on COVID patients. Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology, co-led the new study involving 185 patients and found that blood samples from recovered COVID patients suggest a robust, long-lasting immune response that could last for years or even decades. The research, published online, has not been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal. However, it is the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date. Astonishingly, this groundbreaking study didn’t receive much media attention.
President Trump continues to battle and fight the Election results. There are no material fraud findings with two dozen lawsuits filed thus far at the state and federal level. The Trump campaign is aggressively reaching out to the base and fundraising to support legal activities. However, the fine print shows that 60% of raised funds go to Save America, Trump’s PAC, vs. legal costs. In Georgia, officials recounted 5 million ballots by hand and concluded that Biden won the state by 12,284 votes. The victory is narrower than initial findings because the audit discovered an uncounted batch of 2,600 ballots, netting Trump around 800 more votes. Of course, even if Georgia flipped for Trump, Biden would still have enough electoral votes to win the presidency. President Trump’s only real shot at winning the Election is to overturn Pennsylvania or flip multiple states. The Trump campaign withdrew a central part of its lawsuit in Pennsylvania regarding 682,000 mail-in and absentee ballots. Trump lost Pennsylvania by 55,000 votes, and it’s unlikely that any remaining efforts could overcome that deficit. Wisconsin is the other state where the Trump campaign is active. The Badger State doesn’t have automatic recounts, but Trump has filed a petition and wired the state $3 million to pay for a partial recount.
Meanwhile, President-Elect Biden announced his administration’s transition team of 500 experts. The group is half women and over 40% minorities, disabled and LGBTQ. Biden has appointed Richard Stengel as “Team Lead” for the US Agency for Global Media. Stengel is a controversial appointee due to his efforts to redefine freedom of speech and make “hate speech” a crime. Stengel is the former editor of Time, served in the Obama administration, and wrote an Op-Ed in the Washington Post last year about concerns with (unregulated) freedom of speech.
The economic recovery appears to be slowing. This week 742,000 filed for first-time unemployment benefits. For comparison, during the Great Recession 2007 - 2009, the peak week for unemployment reported 665,000 claims. In total, 20 million Americans received jobless benefits from the government at the end of October. A new study shows that 12 million Americans will lose their unemployment benefits the day after Xmas unless Congress passes a new relief package. These individuals currently receive an average of $320 per week, and without that money, many will struggle to pay rent and buy food. The Food Banks are reporting a 60% increase in demand since the pandemic started. The group says that up to 50 million could face hunger by year-end, including 17 million children. One person who isn’t feeling deprived this year is Elon Musk. S&P Global announced that on December 21st, 2020, Tesla would join the venerable list of the S&P 500. Tesla stock surged on the news, jumping more than 13%, which increased Elon Musk’s net worth by $13 billion. Elon Musk, age 49, has a personal fortune of $117 billion and the world’s third-richest person, behind Bill Gates ($129 billion) and Jeff Bezos ($184 billion). The company currently has a market cap of $468 billion and is one of the top 10 most valuable companies on the list.
President Trump announced a troop drawdown in Iraq and Afghanistan. Trump campaigned on bringing troops home from the area, and this announcement marks the 20th anniversary of US presence in Afghanistan. The move raised eyebrows because of the timing. Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, was fired a few weeks ago, ostensibly because he disagreed with the decision. The Boy Scouts of America declared bankruptcy earlier this year after facing hundreds of sexual abuse lawsuits. The Boy Scouts identified more than 12,000 alleged victims from 1944 - 2016, and more than 7,800 scout leaders known or suspected to have sexually abused boys. Claims against the organization now exceed 90,000 and have been filed in all 50 states. Amazon continues the march toward total world domination by announcing it’s entering the pharmacy business. Customers can order prescription medications for home delivery, including free delivery for Prime members. Amazon has been quietly building out its pharmacy offering for several years after the acquisition of PillPack in 2018. The pharmacy market is $300 billion, and Amazon’s entrance threatens incumbents such as CVS, Walgreens, GoodRx, and Walmart, and all of their stocks dropped materially on the news.
Construction of the US-Mexico border wall has intensified in recent weeks. Biden has said, “there will not be another foot of wall constructed in my administration.” The Department of Homeland Security is leading the project, and Secretary Chad Wolf indicated that efforts to build the wall are unfettered with the election results. The Army Corps of Engineers, which oversees the wall project, said it expects contractors to continue work through the remaining two months of Trump’s term. The project has an estimated price tag of $15 billion and $8 billion spent thus far. Eleven different contractors are at work on 27 separate construction contracts, with 400 miles of the wall erected, and another 450 miles expected by year-end. The Arizona sections of the wall are the most expensive due to the terrain and run about $41 million a mile.
A Falcon 9 rocket carrying four astronauts from launch pad 39A at Kennedy Space Center landed at the International Space Station (ISS) for a six-month mission. The astronauts will study space’s effect on brain function, organs, cardiovascular health, and how food affects health in space. Space X partnered with NASA for the mission, and it represented the first private company to launch astronauts to the ISS. The mission is an essential step in NASA’s “Artemis program” to get astronauts on the moon by 2024 and eventually on Mars. (The US, Soviet Union, and China are the three nations that have successfully landed their spacecraft on the moon, and the US is the only country to have ever put people on the moon. Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin’s made their historic first steps on the moon with Apollo 11 in 1969, and a total of twelve astronauts have walked on the moon.) The last time someone visited the moon was during NASA’s Apollo 17 mission in 1972.
President Barack Obama Obama released his 768-page memoir, “A Promised Land” in 19 languages with a $45 list price. Obama joined 60 minutes this week to promote the book, and early signals will be one of the top-selling political memoirs of all time. The public feud between Taylor Swift and music manager Scooter Braun is heating up. Braun, who owns Swift’s first six albums’ rights, sold them to an investment fund for a reported $300 million. Swift plans to re-record the albums once she’s legally allowed and make them available to fans. Actor Ryan Reynolds, Blake Lively’s husband, purchased the Welsh soccer team, Wrexham AFC, for $2.5 million. The squad is languishing in the fifth tier of English professional soccer with a stadium recognized by Guinness World Records as the oldest in the world. I sense a soccer-themed Deadpool 3 will follow. The trend of Americans leaving urban markets for more rural destinations is heating up. Northwest Arkansas has added the incentive of $10,000 and a mountain bike to attract new residents. I guess the previous call of banjos, mosquitos, and all-you-can-eat pig’s feat wasn’t getting the job done.
I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:
Protecting free speech, however offensive, is one way of preventing infringements on liberty. Countries like China and much of the Middle East show what can go wrong when free speech is compromised. In these countries, free speech can result in jail time or even death. But what about hate speech that can cause violence by one group against another? Is censorship ever justified? Hate Speech may not pull the trigger of violence but can create the environment and fuel the fire for malicious actions. Tragic mass shootings across the country--Orlando nightclub, El Paso Walmart, Las Vegas concert—can trace back to various forms of hate speech. With that in mind, should speech be censored? The challenge with censorship is figuring out where to draw the line; and, more importantly, who gets to draw that line. And, censorship tends to have insatiable qualities that rarely stop with the first bite. Therefore, I tend to believe the decision is binary vs. shades of grey. Embrace free speech and live with the fall-out, or allow censorship and all the limitations. I choose free speech. Quoting Winston Churchill, “democracy is the worst form of government, except all the others.”
Bad arguments for limiting speech
The year 2020 will be defined by a virus. Of course, the headlines are as follows: 8m infections, 1.3m deaths, and economic destruction worldwide. However, coronavirus has insidious consequences that are only starting to be understood. The psychological impact of the COVID era has taken a toll on many, from working parents with children, to single mothers, to individuals looking for love. It turns out most humans aren’t very good at isolation. We are social creatures and need human interaction and community. This article looks at the impact of coronavirus on young people. While most people under 30 evaded the virus’s harsh health consequences, this does not mean they escaped its wrath. Graduating students face grim prospects for employment. Those aged 25 and under are 2.5 times more likely to be without a job because of the pandemic. And for those who have jobs, more than half reported a reduction in income, with young women and those in lower-paid positions hit the hardest. It’s not surprising that the share of 18-29-year-olds living at home is the highest ever recorded. Surveys cited in the article show that young people are losing faith in their leaders and feel they poorly handled the pandemic. Trust in government and public institutions has been falling for years but accelerated in 2020. Health specialists have warned that the pandemic’s mental health impact will outlast the virus as millions cope with depression, anxiety, and isolation. Therefore, as COVID infection rates soar and we contemplate our response, we need to consider the full health risks and not just the headlines.
The kids aren’t alright: how Generation COVID is losing out
II. The rest of the best
Elon Musk’s totally awful, batshit crazy, completely bonkers, most excellent year
Welcome back to the office. Please wear this tracking device.
Boost your immune system for winter with food
How P&G launched a 24-hour disinfecting spray just as COVID hit the US
III. Stats that made me go WOW!
- Current dietary guidelines in the US recommend up to two cups of fruit and two to three servings of vegetables a day. Yet, only 10% of Americans meet the federal fruit or vegetable recommendations. A 2017 study found one in five deaths globally, around 11 million people, occurred because of too much sodium and a lack of whole grains, fruit, nuts and seeds. In many countries, poor diet now causes more deaths than tobacco smoking and high blood pressure. (By comparison, there have been 1.34 million deaths from coronavirus.)
- Last month, 8 in 10 vehicles sold in Norway were plug-in EVs. Norway has a stated goal of reaching 100% new vehicle sales to be electric by 2025.
IV. Name that Tune!
As I write this email, I am listening to "With or Without" You by U2.
U2 is an Irish rock bank from Dublin that formed in 1976. The group met as teenagers while attending Mount Temple Comprehensive School and consists of Bono (lead vocals), Edge (lead guitar), Adam Clayton (bass), and Larry Mullen Jr. (drums). U2 have released 14 studio albums and sold an estimated 170 million records worldwide. The song "With or Without You" is on The Joshua Tree album, which was released the year I graduated from high school (1987). The song was the group’s most successful single at that time, becoming the first number-one hit in both the US and Canada. The group has won 22 Grammy Awards and inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame their first year of eligibility. Rolling Stone ranked U2 at number 22 on its list of the 100 Greatest Artists of All Time.
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