Episode 24: Pink Houses
The Election is four days away, and by mid-week, the country will return to normal. Yeah, right. Unfortunately, the Election will likely be close and contested by the loser, resulting in uncertainty and chaos for weeks or even months. How’s that for optimism?! As a precaution, Walmart pulled ammunition and guns off its sales floor ahead of potential “civil unrest” related to the Election. Biden remains ahead in the national polls with a significant lead by historical measures. However, Biden’s lead is tightening according to Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight, dropping from 10.7% earlier this month to 9.4% this week. Of course, this statistic raises two essential questions: 1) how credible is polling? 2) what’s happening at the local level in battleground states?
Trump supporters balk at the Biden lead and point to the 2016 election where polls were off the mark and, frankly, wrong. In that Election, national polls missed by an average of 3.1% and, more importantly, were off 5.2% at the state level. Biden’s current lead is less than 5.2% in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The first thing you should know about polling is that different organizations conduct their surveys in quite different ways. Currently, CNN and Fox News conduct polls by telephone using live interviewers, CBS News and Politico field their polls online using opt-in panels. The Associated Press and Pew Research Center conduct polls online using a panel of respondents recruited offline. As you might imagine, different approaches yield different results. And there is always a margin of error. The quality of the survey is also critical to producing credible data. A poll may label itself “nationally representative,” but that’s not a guarantee that its methodology is reliable. If you want to geek out on this topic, the American Statistical Association offers best practices for journalists who cover this topic.
The real magic of polls for the presidential election is at the state level. The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, and each state is allocated electoral votes based on the size of the population and mirrors the number of representatives in Congress. California has the most electoral votes (55), and Alaska, Delaware, District of Columbia, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming have the least (3). Let’s look at Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes and re-election since, frankly, it’s much more difficult for him to win based on demographics and current poll numbers. Trump should win historically red states to get 164 electoral votes, although Georgia and Texas are polling tighter than expected. However, Trump must win Florida (29 votes), Ohio (18 votes), and North Carolina (15 votes), all states considered a toss-up. Plus, he needs a combination of the Midwest states that landed him the presidency in 2016—Wisconsin (10 votes), Michigan (16 votes), and Pennsylvania (20 votes). Biden currently leads Wisconsin by 7% and Michigan by 8%, and Pennsylvania by 5%. (By comparison, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5% in Wisconsin and 4% in Michigan at this point in 2016.) Pennsylvania is the one state that’s critical to both candidates. If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Election; if Biden loses the state, his odds of winning drop to 30%. President Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but by only 44,292 votes. Therefore, you can prop your feet up and focus on Pennsylvania on election night, and chances are the winner of the Keystone state will be our next president.
Camp Biden has raised record-breaking campaign dollars. September’s haul of $383 billion eclipsed a one-month record in August of $365 million. By comparison, Team Trump raised $210 million in August and $248 million in September. Get ready for a heavy dose of Biden ads this weekend. Trump appears content to leverage his access to Marine One and Air Force One and hold multiple rallies in swing states. Senate races are also generating vast amounts of campaign donations. Tightly contested Senate seats are raising record numbers in states like Montana, Iowa, and North Carolina. The problem is the parties aren’t required to reveal their donors, leaving voters to guess who is behind the ads and influence. Campaign financing is a bipartisan problem and raises serious ethical questions for the process. This year, total spending in the US election is on track to surpass $14 billion, more than double the total from 2016. The fundraising efforts appear to be working as citizens are motivated to vote in this Election at an unprecedented level. More than 80 million people have cast early votes, representing around 60% of the total ballots counted in 2016.
We are bombarded this week with media coverage of a spike in coronavirus cases, both in the US and Europe. In the US, 44 states are reporting an increase in new cases. In Spain, COVID cases are soaring, and the government has plans to put the country under a state of emergency and curfew for six months. France and Germany are seeing a spike and have imposed new lockdown measures, including a shutdown of restaurants, bars, fitness studios, concert halls, and theaters. The restrictions from Europe’s two biggest economies are likely to pile pressure on other countries to follow suit. With Halloween this weekend, the holidays around the corner, and colder weather looming, I anticipate the US to embrace some form of national lockdown, assuming a Biden election win. What gets lost in all of the media hysteria around coronavirus is perspective. Important reminders:
1) A high percentage of people who contract COVID (approximately 40%) are asymptomatic. Still, the effects vary from mild and short-lived to extremely unpleasant and long-lasting for those who do experience symptoms. (I had COVID several months ago, and it took me a month to fully recover.)
2) Segments of society with the greatest risk of dying from COVID are the elderly (over 65), obese, and those with underlying health conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, autoimmune disorders, or lung problems.
3) The infection fatality rate (IFR) is low for most people but 2.5 times greater than the estimated IFR for seasonal influenza, 0.8% (1 in 125), among those aged 65 years and older.
4) At a macro level, the negative consequences of shutting down schools and the economy are enormous and arguably more significant than coronavirus’s adverse effects.
In terms of infection fatality rate (IFR), the Annals of Internal Medicine did a stratified random sample back in April of US citizens aged 12 years and older. (The survey excluded nursing home residents, known decedents, and incarcerated persons.) The IFR was calculated by age, race, sex, and ethnicity, based on the cumulative number of confirmed COVID deaths divided by the number of infections. The average among all COVID-19 decedents was 76.9 years. Persons younger than 40 years had an IFR of 0.01%; those aged 60 or older had an IFR of 1.71%. Whites had an IFR of 0.18%; non-Whites had an IFR of 0.59%. By comparison, here is a list of other events that may kill you and the likelihood of doing so in your lifetime:
Heart disease (16.67%)
Cancer (14.29%)
Opioid overdose (1.02%)
Motor-vehicle crash (0.94%)
A Fall (0.9%)
Drowning (0.08%)
Bicycling (0.02%)
The good news is the IFR is decreasing across all age groups, by as much as 20% due to various factors, namely familiarity with the disease, more capacity at hospitals, and better therapeutics. So, take a deep breath, practice the simple health guidelines I list below, and go live your life. I promise you it won’t last long, and chances are it won’t end due to COVID.
On the economic front, the US economy grew at a record pace in Q3, increasing +7.4% over the prior quarter. Of course, the Q2 drop in growth of -9% was the largest on record, so a recovery in Q3 was making up lost ground. Still, this is a positive sign and suggests a v-shaped recovery for most sectors. Weekly jobless claims fell to 751,000, down 40,000 from the previous week, and the lowest since mid-March. Economists expect the economy to expand through Q4, though more slowly, and end the year at a level slightly smaller than 2019. However, the service economy remains decimated, leaving low-wage workers in a precarious position and facing long-term unemployment. Stocks sold off this week in anticipation of additional lockdown measures related to the “third wave” spike in COVID cases across the country. Small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap stocks for the first time in years as the markets are anticipating a Biden win. The hope is a Biden administration (and the possibility of a change of power in the Senate) will result in lavish fiscal spending to offset corporate-tax increases and greater regulation.
In other news, the Senate voted 52-48 to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, making her the fifth woman to serve on the bench. Susan Collins (R-Maine) was the only Republican to vote against Barrett. The Girl Scouts of America congratulated Barrett with a simple tweet about the historic moment of her confirmation. The seemingly innocent tweet generated a swift backlash from critics and Democratic lawmakers with over 1,000 comments, forcing the organization to take down the tweet. Philadelphia police dispatched for a 911 call about a man with a knife (although the family claims it called for an ambulance). They arrived to find Walter Wallace Jr. in an agitated state and wielding a knife. Wallace ignored the police’s multiple pleas to drop the weapon, and when Wallace made an aggressive move towards the officers, both fired seven shots. Wallace died in the hospital from his injuries. In response, upwards of 1,000 residents looted businesses, and 30 police officers were injured during clashes with protestors. Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf (D) authorized the state’s National Guard to deploy to the area. Hurricane Zita ravaged the gulf coast, and New Orleans took a direct hit with 110 mph winds. The Category 2 storm is the eleventh to make landfall in the US this year, fifth to hit Louisiana, and third in the last two months (all records).
The environment got a boost this week when Japan’s Prime Minister announced a plan for the country to become carbon neutral by 2050. China pledged to do the same by 2060 just a few weeks ago. China is the largest contributor to CO2 emissions at 28%, followed by the US at 15%, India 7%, Russia 5%, and Japan at 3%. Lastly, three tech billionaires from Google, Facebook, and Twitter testified on Capitol Hill about concerns over censorship and the spread of misinformation online. Lawmakers are troubled by a vague piece of legislation known as Section 230 that prevents internet companies from being sued for what their users post online or the decisions they make over what to leave up and takedown. Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter, who showed for the hearings looking homeless and a cross between Howard Hughes and Forest Gump, took most of the ire concerning Twitter blocking the NY Post story’s distribution about Hunter Biden’s laptop. Senator Ted Cruz grilled and then slammed Dorsey, accusing Twitter of improperly censoring reporting that reflected poorly on Joe Biden.
On the lighter side, legalized marijuana is on the ballot in five states, whether to adopt either new medical or recreational cannabis laws. In 2016, the US election resulted in a green wave as cannabis legalization measures passed in eight out of nine states. As it stands now, 33 states have legalized medical cannabis, and of those, 11 states permit (adult) recreational use. You may want to get stoned for this next story. Los Angeles has approved a wildlife bridge’s construction across the 101 highway. The 165-feet-wide bridge over the 101 freeway will allow mountain lions to mix with other mountain lions and reduce the number of animals that are run over by cars. The project costs $87 million and starts next year. Los Angeles won the World Series over the Tampa Bay Rays, giving the Dodgers its first title in 32 years and 7th in franchise history. And just when you thought 2020 couldn’t get worse, the US Preventive Services Taskforce said that screening for colorectal cancer should begin at 45, not 50. Good times!
I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:
Democrats and left-leaning Americans are amazed that so many people can support Trump. Dissenters point to Trump's character, incessant lying, response to the pandemic. They wonder what spell he has cast over his followers. There's no denying Trump's core supporters are zealots. A staggering 82% of Republicans approve of Trump's coronavirus response. Popular responses include trusting people to make their own decisions, rather than relying on the government to make decisions for people. However, a more profound psychological phenomenon may be occurring. Many white men feel under assault, demonized, and forgotten. For uneducated whites, economic opportunities have evaporated in favor of more educated minorities. With globalization, blue-collar American jobs have been automated and sent offshore. Plus, there are social movements that left many (mostly white) men feeling emasculated. The #metoo movement shed light on men's egregious and inappropriate behavior towards women and left many men wondering what was appropriate behavior. And more recently, the Black Lives Matter movement highlighted the unfair treatment of black people in the country (often at the expense of white men). These movements represent progress; however, they tend to lump everyone under the same label: white men are misogynists, white men are racists, white men are economic imperialists. White men don't want to apologize for being white or feel like they have this outstanding debt of reparations to every non-white, non-male member of society.
The demographic shifts in this country put an exclamation point on this topic. A mostly white baby boomer generation that defined the last half of the 20th century is giving way to a more ethnic, multicultural nation. The United States will become "minority white" in 2045 And some white men feel that certain people are "cutting the line" in front of them. In their eyes, women, African Americans, and immigrants are getting ahead, boosted by the government and its affirmative-action programs. Of course, to all of this, observers may say, "it's about time!" Still, this doesn't change the sentiment of hopelessness for many white people in the country. Trump effectively plays identity politics and appeals to the emotional self-interests of white men. He gives them permission to feel superior, almost heroic, and restore a sense of pride for their place in the country. This article is an excellent exploration of the topic.
Why many white men love Trump’s coronavirus response
At this point in the pandemic, a few things should be clear. First, most countries are struggling to contain coronavirus. Yes, some nations are doing better than others, and I’m not suggesting the US performed well as President Trump and the White House would boast. There are many things the US and the federal and government could have done better to address coronavirus. However, it’s unfair to compare countries like New Zealand, Iceland, Denmark, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, or even China to the US on handling coronavirus. The US has unique challenges, including its size, the federalist government system, history of personal freedom, ethnic and cultural diversity, and lack of experience dealing with a health crisis of this magnitude.
Furthermore, we learned with HIV that healthcare is best addressed at the local level. States and even cities are more effective in the prevention and treatment of disease. It’s vital to have a national policy, but the federal government is ill-equipped to be responsible for healthcare. Governors, mayors, and, most importantly, residents should be accountable for their communities’ response to this health crisis. Democrats enjoy blaming Republicans for the high rate of COVID. Yet, the top five cities with the highest daily rates of new cases (LA, Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, Chicago) are all run by Democratic mayors. The reality is there is no panacea to this pandemic until we can develop a safe vaccine. Until then, the best plan of action is to follow simple guidelines and practice common sense: 1) wear a mask — to protect others, more than to protect yourself 2) social distance — avoid large gatherings and close contact with others for long periods 3) wash your hands often and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth 4) get outside — indoor facilities with poor ventilation and stagnant air represent the most significant risk 5) get a flu shot and when available the coronavirus vaccine 6) avoid contact with at-risk segments of the population, especially residents in nursing homes. (Nursing home residents represented 54.9% of Indiana’s deaths.) Joe Biden has announced his seven-point plan for dealing with COVID, and the highlights are below.
Coronavirus is a key campaign issue: What’s Joe Biden’s plan?
In France, a teacher was beheaded by an 18-year-old Muslim extremist after he showed his class caricatures of the Prophet Mohammad as part of a Civics lesson on freedom of speech. Another terror attack occurred in Nice this week. A 21-year-old Muslim extremist stabbed and killed three people in a cathedral, nearly decapitating one woman. These tragic situations are similar to one of France’s worst domestic terror events in 2015 when three gunmen attacked the offices of Charlie Hebdo and murdered 17 people in response to the magazine publishing controversial cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. French President Emmanuel Macron delivered the eulogy at the teacher’s funeral and said, “France would never give up its liberties, or its cartoons. We will promote secularism and not renounce caricatures.” Macron has called Islam a religion “in crisis” and cracked down on Muslims suspected of links to radical groups. Turkish President Recep Erdogan said the “despicable images” were the latest example of Macron’s “anti-Muslim agenda” and suggested Macron needs “mental checks.” Erdogan has seen himself as Islam’s most prominent defender, especially against perceived slights from Europe. This week’s edition of Charlie Hebdo featured Erdogan’s caricature in his underwear, lifting a Muslim woman’s skirt. I don’t suspect tensions between these two countries will calm anytime soon.
France, Turkey and the Charlie Hebdo Cartoos: What’s behind the dispute?
II. The rest of the best
Why the size of Biden’s lead still matters
How I upgraded my home office during the pandemic
Twitter’s Jack Dorsey: A hands-off CEO in a time of turmoil
III. Stats that made me go WOW!
- Only half the 22 million jobs lost in March and April have recovered.
- Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook account for 46% of the Nasdaq 100.
- Pennsylvania produces ~25% of the U.S.' natural gas that comes from fracking. It's been an economic savior for some parts of the state hollowed out by the decline of manufacturing jobs.
- Three of 4 voters express concern about the possibility of violence on Election Day. Only 1 in 4 say they are "very confident" that the nation will have a peaceful transfer of power if Democratic challenger Joe Biden defeats President Donald Trump.
IV. Name that Tune!
As I write this email, I am listening to “Pink Houses" by John Mellencamp.
John Mellencamp is from a rural town in Indiana. Mellencamp was born with spina bifida and had corrective surgery as an infant. He formed his first band at the age of 14 and married his pregnant girlfriend at 18. He would become a grandfather at 37. Mellencamp is known for his honest and plainspoken writing style and folksy brand of heartland rock. Mellencamp amassed 22 Top 40 hits in the US. Nominated for 13 Grammy Awards, Mellencamp only won one. Billy Joel inducted Mellencamp into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in 2008 and the Songwriters Hall of Fame in 2018. Mellencamp recorded “Pink Houses” in a farmhouse in Brownstown, Indiana, and released the song in 1983 on the album Uh-Huh. Mellencamp recounts his inspiration for “Pink Houses.” Driving along Interstate 65, near Indianapolis, he spotted a black man holding a cat on the front porch of his small, pink house and noticed the juxtaposition of the man and the relentless flow of traffic yards from his front lawn. Rolling Stone magazine listed “Pink Houses” as No. 447 of the 500 Greatest Songs of All Time. Several Republican politicians used the song in presidential campaigns and rallies, notably Ronald Reagan’s re-election bid in 1984 and John McCain’s bid for the 2008 presidential election. Ironically, Mellencamp identifies with the Democratic Party’s progressive wing, and despite the cheerful chorus, “Pink Houses” laments the view that the American dream is no longer working. Oops!
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