Episode 21: Panama
There are only 25 days until the election. The debate this week between VP Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris contrasted sharply with the presidential debate last week. The tone was civil, respectful and most of the dialogue was about policy vs. personality. Unfortunately, both candidates dodged important questions and used their time to soapbox and reinforce talking points. For Pence, he avoided climate change, healthcare, and the potential impact of a stacked conservative court, especially when it comes to Roe v Wade. For Harris, she avoided China, both Biden's relationship with the superpower, and how best to handle our biggest rival in an increasingly complicated world. She also was coy and smug when it came to the topic of increasing the number of justices on the Supreme Court beyond the traditional nine seats. And, of course, both candidates spewed nontruths and inconsistencies. Pence continued his full support of President Trump's treatment of COVID, arguing he was ahead of the curve, and his actions saved lives. Harris said she would repeal the Trump tax cuts (which did benefit most Americans) on day one, but then said she would not raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000 per year. She also said she would not end fracking when there are numerous examples of her and Biden saying otherwise. Of course, the biggest hit of the night was the fly on Biden's head. The insect planted on Pence's man helmet for what felt like 15 minutes, stuck in a nest of hairspray and other chemicals. There’s no report if the fly survived the encounter.
Pew Research surveyed registered voters to determine which issues are most important for the upcoming election. The top 10 are listed below in order of voter priority. I've added a question next to each topic for consideration. A good exercise is to weight the importance of these topics and then evaluate your answers to the questions.
1. Economy: Who is the best candidate to lead the economic recovery post COVID? Which tax policy do you prefer between the candidates?
2. Healthcare: Do you support the Affordable Care Act? Who is the best person to shape the nation's health and health insurance policy?
3. Supreme Court appointments: Which candidate do you want to make Supreme Court nominations?
4. COVID: Do you believe the administration's response to COVID was timely, appropriate, and effective? Would it have been different under another administration?
5. Violent crime: Which candidate will restore law and order?
6. Foreign Policy: Who is the candidate capable of building coalitions and equipped to deal with China?
7. Gun Policy: Which candidate will serve your interests when it comes to gun policy?
8. Race relations: Which candidate will protect minority rights and bring the country together?
9. Immigration: Which candidate will create an effective immigration policy?
10. Climate change: What is the threat level of climate change, and who has the best plan to address it? How will the transition to a green economy impact jobs associated with fossil fuels, and how will those displaced workers be supported?
President Trump returned from Walter Reed hospital, claiming that an experimental therapy cured him of COVID. He said he feels terrific and twenty years younger. Of course, the fact you can't order McDonald's in the ICU may be one reason he's feeling better. Still, he's back in the White House, resuming his campaign activities and announced on Twitter that contracting COVID was a "blessing from God." The commission on presidential debates decided to move the debate on the 15th to a virtual format, and Trump announced he would not participate. The final debate is on the 22nd at Belmont College in Nashville, but it's unclear if the candidates will participate.
In economic news, the unemployment rate continues to improve. Last week the Bureau of Labor reported that unemployment declined to 7.9 percent. That's a considerable improvement from the peak hit in April of 14.7%. However, there are many industries and citizens still struggling, and an economic relief package remains delayed. Both sides in Congress seem to agree on three components of the next stimulus package:
another round of PPP (small business support)
direct payments of $1,200 to individuals
targeted support for critical industries such as airlines
However, there is disagreement on a host of other issues, and it's unlikely anything will happen before the election. The World Bank released its biennial report stating that the pandemic could push 150 million people into poverty by the end of 2021, wiping out more than three years of poverty reduction progress. Even more concerning is the forecast that up to 115 million people will fall into extreme poverty, defined as living on less than $1.90 per day. Almost 10% of the world's population lives under extreme poverty conditions. That's a stat worth remembering the next time you are frustrated that your wifi is slow or there’s no new content on Netflix.
The FBI uncovered and foiled a plan to kidnap and potentially murder the Governor of Michigan. Thirteen men who are associated with a militia group called the Wolverine Watchmen were upset about Governor Whitman's COVID lockdown measures, and they schemed for months a plan to storm the Capitol and abduct the governor. Fortunately, the FBI apprehended the alleged domestic terrorists, but it raises concerns about other militia groups and extremist organizations that may be planning mayhem before and after the election. Hurricane Delta made landfall today in the Lake Charles, LA, area, and expected to bring up to 15 inches of rain and life-threatening storm surges. Unfortunately, Lake Charles was ground zero for Hurricane Laura a few weeks ago. The cleanup has barely begun from Laura, and debris will offer Delta added ammunition. Governors of Alabama and Louisiana have declared states of emergency. Delta is the 25th named storm of the 2020 hurricane season and the 10th hurricane to make landfall in the US this year, which is a new record.
A House judiciary subcommittee released an antitrust report after a 16-month inquiry confirming that Amazon dominates the US online retail market and has monopoly power over small and medium-sized businesses. The report found that Facebook, Google, and Apple each hold some degree of monopoly power. Amazon controls up to 70% of all US online sales depending on the product category, and 37% of the 2.3 million third-party sellers on Amazon Marketplace rely on the platform as their sole source of income. I'm not sure why it took 16 months to come to this conclusion. Still, the report argues for the "structural separation" of Amazon and others. Meanwhile, Amazon Prime Day is on October 13th and 14th and will undoubtedly see record sales. Walmart has announced a competitive promotion called the "Big Save," which is Oct 11-15th, and Target has "Deal Days" that overlap with Amazon's dates. With 77 days until Xmas and fears of coronavirus, e-commerce will have a monster season.
On the lighter side, a blind man took the world's first ride in a self-driving car five years ago in Austin, Texas. Waymo, Google's self-driving vehicle division, was responsible for that maiden voyage and produced a top speed of 25mph. Today, the fully driverless service is opening to the public in Phoenix, Arizona. Waymo has pulled away from the self-driving competition and, a few months ago, raised $3 billion to accelerate the rollout of its commercial service. Dollar General store announced a new brand called Popshelf that would go after consumers who have more than $1 to spend. The first two stores will be in the Nashville area, and plans are to open 30 stores in the first fiscal year. But bargain hunters shouldn't get concerned, as 95% of the new store's items are under $5.
I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:
Busy people. Sigh. More like annoying people. What I find interesting about most busy people is how little they seem to accomplish. The problem is busy people often have no guiding principles in their life. Everything is important, yet nothing is important. They float from task to task like a leaf in the wind and, in the end, are left feeling overwhelmed and exhausted. For these busy-bodies, the first important question to ask is, what do you value? For example, do you love the outdoors but can’t remember the last time you spent time doing an outdoor activity? The second question is to make a list of what you can delete from your life and accept that you can’t do everything. The third question is, how often are you mentally and emotionally present during all of this busyness? A Harvard study found that we are most happy when we are doing ONE thing. How often our mind leaves the present activity is a better predictor of happiness than the activities in which we engage. I’ll say that again. What we are doing is less critical to our happiness than how present our minds are while we are doing it. Yet, we seem to increasingly combine activities—email while watching TV, reading while we exercise, and talking to your spouse while you text. Try turning everyday routines and activities like eating, cleaning, and reading my newsletter into mindful activities!
Why time management won’t solve your time problems
The Eisenhower Matrix: avoid the urgency trap
Climate change is real, and the implications for this planet serious. We need to migrate to a greener economy, or we threaten the life of the planet. However, the reality is the world currently depends on fossil fuels for 84% of its energy. Plus, the oil and gas industries provide 10m jobs to workers in the US. Pulling the plug on fossil fuels in the short-term is a non-starter as it would create economic destruction. We need a comprehensive plan for the next 50 years. The United States' contribution to greenhouse gases breaks down as follows:
Transportation (28%)
Electricity production (27%)
Industry (22%)
Commercial & Residential (12%)
Agriculture (10%)
Energy consumption continues to rise, and fossil fuels represent 80% of the US's total energy production. Furthermore, while renewable energy such as wind and solar are on the rise, so is the production of oil and natural gas. Coal was the only fossil fuel to decline in production from its peak in 2008. The more significant concern is there's no domestic plan for our migration to a greener economy? How are we going to train workers for the new economy? How will we re-train or support displaced workers from the oil, gas, and coal industries? Unlike the US, China has a plan. They now possess half the world's electric cars! China is leaning on new, clean tech to leapfrog fossil-fuel industries and establish leadership in the next energy phase. China dominates the lithium market, a necessary ingredient for batteries used in electric cars, with 80% of the world's battery manufacturing capacity. China is also the source of 70% of the world's solar panels. The shale revolution in the US, otherwise known as fracking, has established the US as the largest oil producer ahead of Saudi Arabia. Still, if the campaign to "ban fracking" gains traction, millions of jobs are at risk because most oil and gas wells today have some fracking element. There is no easy answer, and we need strong leadership if we want to keep pace with the new geopolitics of energy.
I grew up in the Cold War era and concerns about armed conflict with the Soviet Union. Fortunately, capitalism prevailed, the US triumphed, and the “evil empire” disintegrated. Russia remains a powerful nation and influential in the world order due to its military capability and vast natural resources. However, Russia is not China. The PRC is our most formidable opponent by a significant margin. China has an enormous and growing army. China is also developing technology prowess mainly from stealing western IP. China is clear that it views its domain to expand far beyond the current borders into sovereign nations in the South China Sea. Do not be fooled. China is a threat to the US, but they are also an essential partner. As reported above, China is our primary partner for much of our green energy efforts. They also are a vital cog in the supply chain wheel for many US industries, including healthcare and pharmaceuticals. The US is inextricably linked with China (and vice versa), making for a complicated relationship. President Trump has taken an aggressive posture with China regarding trade, corporate espionage, and the pandemic. Most of the moves are harmless as the two heavyweights dance around the ring shadow boxing from a safe distance. However, the risk is a heavyweight is one punch away from a knockout. A war with China is unlikely but not impossible. This article talks about the danger of escalating tensions with China and what we need to do about it.
II. The rest of the best
How ‘Verbal Aikido’ can help you avoid stupid arguments
A new Cold War: Trump, Xi and the escalating US-China confrontation
III. Stats that made me go WOW!
- Approximately 1.35 million people die each year as a result of road traffic crashes. Between 20 and 50 million more people suffer non-fatal injuries, with many incurring a disability resulting from their injury. More than half of all road traffic deaths are among vulnerable road users: pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists. Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for children and young adults aged 5-29 years.
- The pandemic will push 150 million people into poverty by the end of 2021, and 115 million people will fall in extreme poverty, defined as living on less than $1.90 per day. Almost 10% of the world’s population lives under extreme poverty conditions.
- Amazon controls up to 70% of all US online sales depending on the product category, and 37% of the 2.3 million third-party sellers on Amazon Marketplace rely on the platform as their sole source of income.
IV. Name that Tune!
As I write this email, I am listening to Panama by Van Halen.
The band Van Halen formed in Pasadena, CA, in 1972. The group is best known for the inventive and creative guitar work of its lead guitarist, Eddie Van Halen. Eddie cited Eric Clapton and Jimmy Page as his musical influences. Van Halen’s original band members were Eddie, his brother Alex, vocalist David Lee Roth, and bassist Michael Anthony. This quartet of rockers released chart-climbing albums such as Van Halen, Van Halen 2, Women & Children First, Fair Warning, and Diver Down, but 1984 achieved mega-commercial success with 10 million copies sold. In 1985 David Lee Roth left the band, and rumor has it another singer replaced Roth, but for me, the band died that day. Roth rejoined the group in 2006, and Eddie’s son replaced Anthony on bass, and the group released the critically acclaimed album A Different Kind of Truth. Eddie married Valerie Bertinelli in 1981, and the two stayed together for almost 25 years. Eddie struggled with drug and alcohol addiction his entire life but embraced sobriety in 2008. He died this week at the age of 65 after a long battle with cancer. David Lee Roth posted a picture of the two on Twitter with the following caption: “What a great, long trip it’s been.” You can say that again!
If you enjoyed the newsletter, please add a friend and share it on social media!