Episode 14: Colors
People are going postal over the mail-in ballot issue, and rhetoric is ramping on both sides about the possibility of an unfair election. A bold prediction: whoever loses the election will protest. Post-election litigation is likely, and it may take weeks to determine the winner. Emergency broadcast alert (cue annoying sound): QAnon is now mainstream. What started three years ago as a rumor on an internet message board about a “deep state” conspiracy to undermine President Trump now has millions of followers. Supporters of “Q” believe there is a global cabal who worship Satan and traffic children for sex and that President Trump is secretly working behind the scenes to defeat the sinister group of politicians, media, celebrities, and high-profile business leaders. The plot may sound like a Tom Clancy novel, but Marjorie Taylor Greene, a political novice, is a vocal Q supporter and running for a Congressional seat in Georgia. Greene won the primary against a neurosurgeon in a deeply red district in the northwest part of the state, so her path to Congress is virtually assured. Trump celebrated Greene's victory tweeting “future Republican star.” The FBI has identified QAnon as a potential domestic terror group, and there is ample evidence that QAnon supporters have participated in and celebrated violent acts. An unintended consequence of social media is the ease that terror groups such as MS-13, Antifa, and QAnon can coordinate and scale. What happened to the good old days of “crips and bloods” and identifying your enemy based on colors. Oh wait, the Republicans and Democrats are carrying on the tradition.
Mother Nature continues to be a mother. Iowa is reeling from the “Derecho” storm, which produced hurricane-force winds over 100mph and flattened Cedar Rapids. The aftermath looked like a war zone, with more than 800 buildings suffering partial collapse, and 50,000 left without power for over a week. There was a first-ever Firenado Warming in CA. And the first male murder hornet was captured in Washington State. Whoever is playing the Jumanji game, please exit and return to base. Most colleges are back in session, and the experiment of in-person classes is off to a horrific start. Notre Dame has over 300 confirmed cases in the first week. An entire Oklahoma State sorority was put in quarantine after 34 members tested positive. UNC announced that it would longer hold in-person classes after more than 130 students tested positive for COVID. They are renaming COVID the “Duke Virus.”
The S&P is in record territory, and so is the NASDAQ with 32 (not a typo) record closes this year! Big tech has fueled the rally, driven by the fact many tech companies have benefited from work-from-home and other digital trends. Amazon has led the way with a 75% increase in value this year, followed by Apple 65%, Microsoft 33%, Facebook 29% and Alphabet 15%. Alphabet should be ashamed of itself for such paltry returns YTD. These five firms together represent 23% of the S&P 500. Apple passed the $1 trillion valuation two years ago and closed the week with a $2.1 trillion value. The retail investor is back at a level similar to the early 2000s. With double-digit unemployment and employees working from home, combined with the low (to free) cost of trading today, interest in “day trading” has skyrocketed. The lack of sports--and sports betting—has been another factor driving retail investing. Social media offers traders an information superhighway to discuss stock tips, share insights, and, unfortunately, spread misinformation. E*Trade registered over 260,000 new retail accounts in March, more than any full year on record, and Robinhood, the popular trading app, logged a record three million new accounts in Q1. There was some positive news on the economy this week: Retail spending climbed 1.2% in July, and after three months of increases, the total value of US retail sales is above pre-pandemic levels. Electronics and appliances led all retail categories. Existing-Home sales rose 24.7% in July from June (and up 8.7% YoY) due to low-interest rates and a desire of buyers for more space as a result of coronavirus.
The Democratic National Convention was held in Milwaukee this week, but without the traditional, rowdy delegate crowds. Most of the convention was virtual and lacked energy and excitement. Frankly, it was hard to watch. Biden even accepted the party’s nomination from Delaware. My key takeaway from the Democrat’s messaging: Biden is a good guy; Trump is a bad guy. Like I need a week-long convention to communicate that “news.” Several speakers talked about Biden’s willingness to give out his phone number to kids with a stutter. That’s a sweet gesture but not what I need from a President. “Where’s Joe, we have Xi Jinping ready to discuss phase two of the US-China trade deal? I saw him in the hallway talking on the phone to a kid from Beaumont, Texas, about his stutter.” I want to hear POLICY and specifically a party that would stand firmly around a handful of issues. Instead, in Biden’s 22-minute speech, he mentioned education, student debt, immigration, childcare, eldercare, gun control, social security, racial equality, domestic manufacturing, infrastructure, empowered labor unions, equal pay for women, min wage increases, tax reform, and bringing the country together. Whew! Seriously? The first thing you learn in marketing is to focus on a handful of benefits as too many dilute the message and raises credibility issues. PICK THREE, OWN THEM, AND EXECUTE! The Republicans had the advantage of letting the Democrats go first, so it will be interesting to see if they can benefit from the other party’s experience.
On the lighter side, the NBA playoffs began, and nobody cares. A Chinese phone number, which ended with five 8s, was auctioned and received 5,000 bids, and the winner paid $325,000 In Chinese, the number eight is a lucky number and represents “prosper” or “get rich.” What it represents to me is an opportunity for CRANK CALLS! I know what I’m doing this weekend. Bababooey! Domino’s announced it was hiring more than 20,000 workers across the US. Papa John’s announced it recently hired 20,000 workers and will hire another 10,000 in the coming months. Jenny Craig must be loving these trends. President Trump announced he would issue a presidential pardon to women’s rights activist Susan B. Anthony for voting illegally in 1872 to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the 19th amendment. Shouldn’t she be pardoning us?! It’s an excellent reminder to check out the 27 amendments of the US Constitution that protect Americans’ rights. Many people have suffered and died to protect these rights, so you should at least know them.
I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:
I started this newsletter, in part, out of frustration. I was fatigued with the left and right-leaning media outlets and the confirmation bias of people who patron those outlets. It was an endless cycle of entrenchment. I would watch people read and consume content from sources that reflect their views and double-down on existing beliefs leaving little opportunity for new ideas and growth. I am a moderate and have liberal and conservative friends, yet I’m increasingly finding it challenging to organize social gatherings without thinking about each person’s politics. What should be a golden opportunity to bring various points of view to the table for a stimulating discussion has turned into the possibility of getting shanked at a porch party and losing essential relationships. Moderate views are an endangered species and fall in the war zone of “no man’s land,”; similar to a prison yard setting where you either join one of the gangs and “buy-in” or be left on the outside without protection. There has to be a better way.
Testing, Testing, Testing! It’s something we’ve heard about since the pandemic changed our lives forever. Testing is how we can identify the sick and separate them from the well. This article is an excellent overview of testing and describes how the PRC tests that we are relying on are woefully inadequate for a pandemic. It’s like bringing a musket to a machine gun fight. COVID is most contagious in the first nine days of contraction. With up to 1/3 of people who contract the virus are asymptomatic, test wait periods make these tests virtually worthless. We need a new kind of rapid response test, and several are under development. President Trump has celebrated the fact we’ve done more tests than any other nation in the world. And that is true. We have given over 60 million and averaged around 75,000 tests per day. However, according to some experts, we need to average 45 million per day to contain the virus pre-vaccine. So, yes, we are “winning” the testing count around the world, but it’s like being the valedictorian of summer school—ain’t nothing to brag about.
The plan that could give us our lives back
The magic number of winning the presidential election is 270 electoral votes out of the 538 possible votes across the 50 states and DC. Most electoral areas are not competitive due to voting history and demographics. While everyone must exercise their right to vote, only around 16 states will determine the outcome in November. This interactive electoral map is an excellent visual representation. Trump remains down in the polls to Biden but did narrow the gap in the last few weeks. Pollster Nate Silver estimates Trump has a 29% chance of winning the election, which was roughly his estimate in 2016, and we all know how that turned out. Based on a recent NBC/WSJ poll, Trump holds an edge among registered voters on the following issues: the economy (+10), crime (+4), having necessary mental and physical health for the job (+2). Biden leads Trump on bringing the country together (+23), race relations (+24), and dealing with coronavirus (+16). It will be interesting to see if people vote their heart or their pocketbooks. Voters said top issues that will factor when voting in the election: the economy (51%), bringing the country together (43%), strong leadership qualities (34%), healthcare (29%), coronavirus (27%).
II. The rest of the best
I meditated for 95 days in a row. Here’s what happened.
SBA outlines PPP appeals: a primer on navigating the process
The pandemic is changing how people get around
A global guide to binge-worthy TV for the pandemic
III. Stats that made me go WOW!
- Map of the US—land type, land use, crops, protected lands, environmental risks, ecological factors and more: https://mcharg.upenn.edu/2100-project-atlas-green-new-deal
- Ford CEO, Jim Hackett, is stepping down and being replaced by current COO, Jim Farley. Ford stock is down over 40% under Hackett’s leadership, while Tesla is up over 700%. Farley said Ford’s competition today is “Amazon, Baidu, Tesla, Apple, and others.” Based on market cap, Ford is worth $26 billion. By contrast, Tesla has a valuation of +$ 380 billion, making it the most valuable car company. The stock is up over 300% this year, including more than 100% since July 1. Tesla will soon join the ranks of the S&P 500 and become the most valuable company ever added to the index—more valuable than all but eight of the companies currently listed, including Walmart. Elon Musk is now the fourth richest person in the US behind Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, and Jeff Bezos.
- The life expectancy for men in Russia is 64 years old. Only 10% of men in the US die before their 55th birthday. More than 40% of working-age men in Russia die because they drink too much, including non-consumable alcohol, like colognes and antiseptics.
- The mortgage delinquency rate in the US in Q2 rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 8.22%, up 89% from Q1, 2020. 8.4 million US households missed a mortgage payment in June. FHA loans now have the highest delinquency rate since 1979. New Jersey had the highest FHA loan delinquency rate at 20%.
- The friend chicken wars continue. Wendy’s introduced a new offer, and McDonald’s is preparing to launch it’s “Chick-fil-a killer.” KFC is also testing a new “upgraded” chicken sandwich. Popeyes infused new life in the category when it introduced it’s sandwich last August. Americans consumed roughly 2.3 billion chicken sandwiches since the start of 2020. Chick-fil-a is still the category killer with a 53% market share.
IV. Name that Tune!
As I write this email, I am listening to “Colors” by Ice-T.
Tracy Lauren Marrow is better known by his stage name Ice-T. Marrow was born and raised in New Jersey and lost both his parents to heart attacks at a young age. His mother passed when he was in third grade and his father when he was 13 years old. The orphaned Marrow relocated to the Crenshaw district of South Los Angeles and was briefly raised by his aunt before moving out on his own at seventeen years old. Marrow joined the US Army in 1977 and served in the 25th Infantry Division and honorably discharged in 1979. After the military, Marrow pursued a life of crime. Shockingly, Ice-T admitted on the Adam Carolla podcast that aired in 2012 that after his Army tenure and before his music success that he robbed a series of banks, jewelry stores and committed multiple Class 1 Felonies. Several of Marrow's criminal accomplices were arrested and served lengthy jail time. Marrow averted that fate and started his music career as a DJ and underground rapper in the 1980s. Ice-T's debut album was in 1987, the same year he recorded the title theme song for Dennis Hopper's movie, Colors, and it was the second album to carry an explicit content sticker after Slick Rick's La Di Da Di. But, it was Ice-T's second album, Power, that went Platinum. Ice-T is considered one of the pioneers of Gangsta Rap. Despite his music success, Ice-T is best known for his acting and role as Detective Odafin Tutuola on Law & Order: Special Victims Unit since 2000. Ice-T also had feature roles in several popular movies--Breakin', Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo, New Jack City, Ricochet, and Johnny Mnemonic.