Episode 12: Moving in Stereo
Sadly, this week was a destructive one. There was a massive explosion in Beirut, Lebanon, which devastated the city and created a series of apocalyptic images. Lebanon’s President, Michel Aoun, said that 2.75 kilotons of ammonium nitrate, a raw material for fertilizers and explosives, was the culprit for the blast. By comparison, other notable explosions in history: Hiroshima (15 kilotons); Chernobyl (0.3 kilotons); Oklahoma City (0.0025 kilotons). Beirut’s explosion could be felt 150 miles away and killed at least 135 people, injured 5,000, and left more than 300,000 homeless. There is controversy about whether the blast was an accident or a planned attack, but there’s no denying the devastating impact on the citizens of Beirut. Lebanon was already facing economic ruin and hyperinflation, and this incident on top of the pandemic makes the disaster particularly horrific. Closer to home, Hurricane Isaias hit the east coast. The storm registered wind topping 140mph, generated 36 tornadoes from North Carolina to New Jersey, and left 1M without power. Governor Cuomo declared New York a state of emergency. Unfortunately, this may be a sign of things to come this summer as the 2020 hurricane season, which runs through October, is on track to be one of the most active in decades with the potential for 25 named storms. There is a 75% chance of a major hurricane, Category 3 or above, hitting the US this year. On the west coast, the “Apple fire” has burned 28,000 acres in CA’s Riverside County. More than 2,000 personnel are fighting the fire, and it is currently 30% contained and now threatening San Bernardino County.
On the political front, President Trump gave a mind-boggling interview with HBO’s Axios covering topics ranging from COVID, Civil Rights, the Economy, and upcoming election. Biden’s campaign strategy seems clear: hide. Biden reminds me of a kid trying to stay up past bedtime by being as quiet as possible, so grown-ups forget he’s in the room. Despite his silence, Biden is planning to outspend Trump in TV and digital advertising with $280M targeting swing states--Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan (states all won by Trump in 2016). Trump has reserved $145M for similar advertising but raised a record setting $165M in July. All this means is network TV is going to become more miserable than its current state. Pro tip: buy more Netflix stock. There are three scheduled debates between President Trump and Biden between Sept. 29 and Oct. 22. The GOP has asked the electoral commission for a fourth debate the first week of September, arguing that by Sept. 29, up to eight million Americans in 16 states will have already started voting. If denied, the GOP proposes moving the first debate forward. The discussion over mail-in voting and competency of the US Postal Service is heating up and infuriating every man and woman who wears navy shorts with knee-high socks for a living. President Trump has suggested mail-in voting increases the potential for fraud; however, in a head-scratcher, Trump tweeted, “In Florida I encourage all to request a Ballot and Vote by Mail.” The states that conduct elections primarily by mail include Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. This year, CA, Vermont, and Nevada will embrace and promote mail-in voting due to COVID.
In COVID-related news, Republicans and Democrats are still at a stalemate regarding additional Corona relief funds. Congress is due to go on recess today, but both chambers have indicated that they plan to continue in session until the next Corona relief bill is approved. The school and sports debate rages on. Chicago, the nation’s third-largest school district, reversed course and will begin the school year remotely. NYC is the only major school system planning to offer in-person classes this fall. By comparison, the country of Kenya was worried about the inequality of remote learning, and its solution was to cancel the entire school year and require students to repeat a grade next year. The University of Connecticut canceled their football season due to COVID concerns, while the Big Five conferences are planning to proceed with a revised schedule (for now). The US Census is ending a month early on Sept 30th due to the pandemic. The impact is traditionally hard to reach groups such as minorities, undocumented immigrants, rural residents, and low-income households will be undercounted. The Census is calculated every ten years and impacts the allocation of political representation across the country and distribution of $1.5 trillion in federal funding to states and localities for schools and hospitals. Inaccuracy in the census data would skew figures and the dollars that follow for the next decade. Four out of 10 households still haven’t filled out the Census. If that describes you, please take five minutes and do it now!
On the lighter side, rejoice, it’s Shark Week! Discovery Channel has aired Shark Week every summer for 32 years starting in 1998. Shark Week is the longest-running cable TV programming event in history. In 2018, there were 35 million total viewers. If you are a fan and want to watch something besides COVID coverage, here is the schedule. My heart goes out to anyone named Karen. What was once a popular name has become an internet meme and a symbol of racism and white privilege. In 1965, it was the third most-most-popular name in the US, and by 2018 it had fallen to 635th, and some predict it may vanish for the next few years. And falling under the bucket of bizarre, there has been a North American invasion of “Zombie cicadas” under the influence of a mind-controlling fungus that eats genitals. God help us.
I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:
Microsoft’s potential acquisition of Tiktok is their “deal of the decade,” according to media. TikTok would give MSFT access to 100m US users and overnight make the company a notable player in social media. ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, had revenue of $17 billion and profits of $3 billion last year. TikTok revenue was around $300m globally and is aiming for $500m this year in the US alone. MSFT is looking to only buy TikTok’s operations in the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. With the acquisition of those markets, Microsoft would be adding somewhere between $500M and $700M in revenue, based on estimates. TikTok has suggested that the company is worth a staggering $50 billion price tag, which would imply around +100x revenue multiple. By comparison, social media competitors are trading at significantly lower revenue multiples: Facebook (9x), Twitter (8x), Snap (16x). I’d love to be a fly on the wall of this negotiation, and, of course, Trump’s executive order to ban TikTok in 45 days makes the stakes even higher.
Trump issues Executive Order to ban WeChat and TikTok in 45 days
What has happened to the Party of Lincoln? The ideals of entitlement reform, fiscal restraint, free trade, and spreading democracy abroad is gone, and replaced with vitriol, isolationism, xenophobia, and small-minded thinking, otherwise known as “Trumpism.” And it seems the gravity of Trumpism is pulling all Republicans toward this new paradigm. I saw this happen in my home state of TN in the senate primary race between Bill Hagerty and Mani Sethi. The two candidates engaged in an atrocious mud-slinging war and competed on who was “more like Trump”. Hagerty won the primary yesterday with 51% of the vote. Hagerty is a good man, pre-eminently qualified for the role, but I’m disappointed by his campaign.
Tennessee Republicans, once moderate and genteel, turn toxic in Trump era
Where do Republicans go from here?
The notion of abolishing the police is asinine. Police are essential for the rule of law. The accounts from businesses owners during the riots is frightening. Imagine a world where you have nobody to call when you encounter a bad actor? And imagine trying to recruit police officers in 2020 amidst the chaos and police-bashing. Reform the police? Sure. But that likely entails more not less funding.
Abolish the Police? Those who survived the chaos in Seattle aren’t so sure
In the modern era, food production has never been a problem when it comes to world hunger. The trend for more than a century has been toward more abundant food and declining prices. The topic of “hunger” is a distribution problem and often the result of war and political oppression. When it comes to food production, the focus needs to shift to discover ways to do so that doesn’t destroy the planet.
Food is growing more plentiful, so why do people keep warning of shortages?
COVID is real. It’s not a hoax, and it’s a real problem facing the US and the world. However, it’s not the only health risk facing our planet. The problem is all the attention and resources are flooding to COVID and creating some serious health issues in the wake with potentially far more significant consequences than COVID.
The biggest monster is spreading and it’s not the coronavirus
II. The rest of the best
7 things to know before applying for PPP loan forgiveness
COVID will be painful for universities, but also bring change
Goldman Sachs comes up with Tinder for mergers
Robinhood has lured young traders sometimes with devastating results
III. Stats that made me go WOW!
- Space X launched a prototype of its nextgen rocket called Starship, reaching 500 feet to test the launch and landing capabilities. Space X envisions building 100 Starships per year and sending 100,000 people from Earth to Mars every time the planets’ orbits align (every 26 months), with a goal of 1 million Mars tourists by 2050.
- For the first time in the paper’s history, the NYT’s digital revenue ($189 million) exceeded print revenue ($175 million) last quarter. The NYT added 669,000 digital subscribers in Q2, its best quarter for subscription growth ever. It now has 6.5 million subscriptions across print and digital, intending to hit 10 million by 2025. Despite the strong subscriber growth, the pandemic has walloped advertising revenue across the media industry, and the Times felt it—ad revenue slid 44% for the quarter YoY.
- This week marked 75 years since the US dropped the world’s first deployed atomic bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima. It killed 80,000 people immediately and tens of thousands more in the aftermath. The US dropped another nuclear bomb on Nagasaki three days later, Aug 9th, 1945, killing more than 70,000. Japan surrendered on Aug 15th. There are approximately 130,000 survivors from those attacks who average 83 years old. Fast forward to today, and there are nine countries (US, Russia, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, North Korea) that have nuclear capability. Still, the US and Russia account for 90% of the world’s nuclear arsenal. The number of atomic weapons in the world is down from 70,000 in 1986 to around 14,000 today. The US, UK, and Russia have all been reducing their stockpiles, but intelligence experts speculate that China, Pakistan, India, and North Korea stockpiles have increased.
- Jeff Bezos sold $3.1 billion worth of Amazon stock in the last week for some walking around money. Earlier this year, Bezos sold $4.1 worth of Amazon stock. Amazon stock is up 73% this year alone. Bezos still owns 54 million shares of Amazon, which carry a market value of $176 billion. But don’t worry about Bezos should Amazon stock decline, he invested $250,000 in Google in 1998. Today those original shares would be worth almost $5 billion.
IV. Name that Tune!
As I write this email, I am listening to “Moving in Stereo” by The Cars.
This group brings me back to my youth. The Cars were birthed in Boston in 1976 and pioneered a new synthesizer-oriented sound that became famous in the 1980s. “Moving in Stereo” was written by Ric Ocasek, lead guitarist, and Greg Hawkes, keyboards, but lead vocals for the song performed by bassist Benjamin Orr. The song is partly famous because it was featured in the 1982 movie “Fast Times at Ridgemont High” and arguably one of the best-placed songs in a movie scene. The track drops when Phoebe Cates exits the pool, and Judge Reinhold (in his Pirate hat!) gazes out the window. For those unfamiliar with the unforgettable movie scene (and aren’t offended by light nudity), you can find the clip in question on Vimeo. Moving in Stereo has been used in a variety of TV shows such as Stranger Things, Family Guy, Parenthood, Scrubs, Alias, and The Sopranos. The Cars disbanded in 1988 and did not reunite as a full group until 2018 when they performed at their induction ceremony for the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. Ocasek died the following year.
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